How GOP could pick up a Dem House seat in New Hampshire

According to historical patterns, the Republican House majority should be in peril in the midterm election of 2018.  A new president's party generally loses seats in the midterm election.  But there is already the prospect of the GOP picking up at least one seat from the Democrats.

New Hampshire's First Congressional District, an area that includes Greater Manchester, the seacoast, and the lakes district, is a true swing district, and the Democrat incumbent has just announced that she is retiring.

 

So closely matched are the two parties that Shea-Porter won elections in 2006 and 2008 but lost the seat in 2010 to former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta but defeated him in the 2012 election, only to lose to him again in 2014 but win back the seat in 2016.

Richard Baehr explains this pattern.  In midterm elections, when turnout is lower, Dems tend to lose the seat, but they tend to get it back with the increased turnout of a presidential election year.

This pattern means that the seat may well be a pick-up for the GOP, something that could be critical in maintaining GOP control of the House.

I expect that WMUR television in Manchester will end up running a lot of political commercials featuring the face of Nancy Pelosi.

According to historical patterns, the Republican House majority should be in peril in the midterm election of 2018.  A new president's party generally loses seats in the midterm election.  But there is already the prospect of the GOP picking up at least one seat from the Democrats.

New Hampshire's First Congressional District, an area that includes Greater Manchester, the seacoast, and the lakes district, is a true swing district, and the Democrat incumbent has just announced that she is retiring.

 

So closely matched are the two parties that Shea-Porter won elections in 2006 and 2008 but lost the seat in 2010 to former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta but defeated him in the 2012 election, only to lose to him again in 2014 but win back the seat in 2016.

Richard Baehr explains this pattern.  In midterm elections, when turnout is lower, Dems tend to lose the seat, but they tend to get it back with the increased turnout of a presidential election year.

This pattern means that the seat may well be a pick-up for the GOP, something that could be critical in maintaining GOP control of the House.

I expect that WMUR television in Manchester will end up running a lot of political commercials featuring the face of Nancy Pelosi.

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