The 'demo guy' wants a do-over

Once upon a time, it was "settled science" that demographics would benefit the Democrats.  How many times did I hear that Romney got a higher percentage of the white vote than Reagan and still couldn't win?  Remember the one about the changing color of the country?

Well, it turns out John B. Judis, "the demo guy," wants to amend his theory.  Not so fast on this game of demographics, he argues now:

On one level, there's no arguing with the math. If you take the percentage of Americans that the U.S. census defines as "minorities" and project their past voting habits into the next decade and beyond, you'll come up with a very sunny version of the Democrats' prospects. 

There are only two problems with this line of thinking, but they're pretty big ones. 

For starters, the census prediction of a "majority-minority" America – slated to arrive in 2044 – is deeply flawed. 

And so is the notion that ethnic minorities will always and forever continue to back Democrats in Obama-like numbers.

Let's look at the second point.

I've often argued that Hispanics could start voting for the GOP as the Democrats go farther left on social issues, from abortion to same-sex marriage.  Add to this the fact that Hispanics are very often entrepreneurs and small business owners, and you can see a lot of votes for the party that wants smaller government and lower taxes.

In Texas, the very conservative Senator John Cornyn and candidate for governor Greg Abbott did well with Hispanics without ever calling for amnesty or open borders.  At the same time, Democrat Wendy Davis did not do well with Hispanic women who weren't crazy about her views on abortion.

As Mr. Judis develops in the article, going forward, the Democrats will have to have an economic message rather than emphasize ethnic-identity politics.  All of that stuff about "racism," "white supremacy," and tearing down Columbus plays well in those precincts that already vote Democrat.  It doesn't play so well in the section of town that Democrats will have to succeed in if they want to win back the House.

Maybe Democrats should go back and listen to Dr. King's words about judging people by their character rather than skin color.  They forgot that part walking home from the "I Have a Dream" speech.

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

Once upon a time, it was "settled science" that demographics would benefit the Democrats.  How many times did I hear that Romney got a higher percentage of the white vote than Reagan and still couldn't win?  Remember the one about the changing color of the country?

Well, it turns out John B. Judis, "the demo guy," wants to amend his theory.  Not so fast on this game of demographics, he argues now:

On one level, there's no arguing with the math. If you take the percentage of Americans that the U.S. census defines as "minorities" and project their past voting habits into the next decade and beyond, you'll come up with a very sunny version of the Democrats' prospects. 

There are only two problems with this line of thinking, but they're pretty big ones. 

For starters, the census prediction of a "majority-minority" America – slated to arrive in 2044 – is deeply flawed. 

And so is the notion that ethnic minorities will always and forever continue to back Democrats in Obama-like numbers.

Let's look at the second point.

I've often argued that Hispanics could start voting for the GOP as the Democrats go farther left on social issues, from abortion to same-sex marriage.  Add to this the fact that Hispanics are very often entrepreneurs and small business owners, and you can see a lot of votes for the party that wants smaller government and lower taxes.

In Texas, the very conservative Senator John Cornyn and candidate for governor Greg Abbott did well with Hispanics without ever calling for amnesty or open borders.  At the same time, Democrat Wendy Davis did not do well with Hispanic women who weren't crazy about her views on abortion.

As Mr. Judis develops in the article, going forward, the Democrats will have to have an economic message rather than emphasize ethnic-identity politics.  All of that stuff about "racism," "white supremacy," and tearing down Columbus plays well in those precincts that already vote Democrat.  It doesn't play so well in the section of town that Democrats will have to succeed in if they want to win back the House.

Maybe Democrats should go back and listen to Dr. King's words about judging people by their character rather than skin color.  They forgot that part walking home from the "I Have a Dream" speech.

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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