CBO score on AHCA: The good and the bad

Repealing and replacing Obamacare with the Republican alternative would lead to 23 million consumers losing their insurance by 2026 but also reduce premium costs and the federal deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO scored the original GOP proposal to reform Obamacare in March, at which time it calculated that 24 million Americans would lose insurance.  The premium savings will come for those states that opt out of onerous Obamacare coverage mandates, including maternity leave and substance abuse coverage.

Daily Caller:

The report projects that some 23 million Americans would lose health insurance coverage by 2026 if Congress passed the proposal, a figure sure to draw flack from Democrats who remain united in their opposition to Republicans efforts to overhaul Obamacare.

Another 51 million Americans under the age of 65 would be uninsured by 2026 if the AHCA is signed into law, up from the projected 28 million Americans under Obamacare. The CBO projects that under the AHCA, "a few million of those people would use tax credits to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks," the report noted.

The AHCA would also reduce the cumulative federal deficit by $119 billion over the next decade, according to the report. The figure is $32 billion less in savings than the CBO's score of the AHCA from March 22.

The CBO scored the original version of the AHCA in early-March. The non-partisan research committee estimated the plan would reduce the federal budget deficit by $337 billion over the ten-year horizon. The report also found that 24 million Americans would lose health insurance if Congress passed the AHCA, with a large portion of the loss stemming from Medicaid consumers. (RELATED: CBO Unveils Obamacare Replacement Report)

One of the main concerns regarding Obamacare for lawmakers is the fact that premiums are skyrocketing to levels many Americans cannot afford. (RELATED: Premiums Doubled Once Obamacare Took Effect, Report Says)

The CBO report finds that the AHCA would increase premiums before 2020 by "an average of about 20 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019." In 2020, premium increases would depend on which states were granted waivers to opt out of certain provisions of Obamacare and how said waivers were implemented.

In states that do not apply for waivers, "average premiums in the nongroup market would be about 4 percent lower in 2026" than under current projections for Obamacare. The fall in premiums is mainly due to the participation of "a younger and healthier population" in the insurance marketplace.

Other states that choose to make moderate changes to Obamacare, which the CBO expects to be about 33 percent of states, can expect "average premiums in the nongroup market would be roughly 20 percent lower in 2026 than under current law."

Many of those who lose their insurance are expected to be Medicaid clients who signed up in droves when Obamacare expanded the eligibility requirements.  But about a quarter of those who signed up for Medicaid after Obamacare was implemented were eligible for the program even without the law.  Others likely to lose their insurance include those whose policies were heavily subsidized by government.  The Republican plan to replace some of those subsidies with tax credits won't make a big difference in the number of people who won't be able to afford insurance.

One of my major beefs with this scoring is that it fails to take into account the reaction of the insurance industry.  Will insurance companies offer a wider variety of plans, with differing coverage levels?  If so, it is likely that more people will be able to afford at least some insurance for their families. 

We are no longer at the point where we don't need to repeal Obamacare.  How many people will lose coverage when Obamacare implodes?  Just today, Blue Cross and Blue Shield said they are pulling out of the Kansas and Missouri exchanges next year.  That's another nail in Obamacare's coffin.

The coverage that will be available to people in two or three years without Obamacare reform will be far more expensive with fewer benefits, higher deductibles, and more out-of-pocket expenses.  This is how the program has been proceeding since the start despite hundreds of billions poured into Obamacare to keep it afloat.

At least the GOP alternative – flawed as it is – offers some hope of coverage to most Americans.  Whether the Senate can improve upon this plan remains to be seen.

Repealing and replacing Obamacare with the Republican alternative would lead to 23 million consumers losing their insurance by 2026 but also reduce premium costs and the federal deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO scored the original GOP proposal to reform Obamacare in March, at which time it calculated that 24 million Americans would lose insurance.  The premium savings will come for those states that opt out of onerous Obamacare coverage mandates, including maternity leave and substance abuse coverage.

Daily Caller:

The report projects that some 23 million Americans would lose health insurance coverage by 2026 if Congress passed the proposal, a figure sure to draw flack from Democrats who remain united in their opposition to Republicans efforts to overhaul Obamacare.

Another 51 million Americans under the age of 65 would be uninsured by 2026 if the AHCA is signed into law, up from the projected 28 million Americans under Obamacare. The CBO projects that under the AHCA, "a few million of those people would use tax credits to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks," the report noted.

The AHCA would also reduce the cumulative federal deficit by $119 billion over the next decade, according to the report. The figure is $32 billion less in savings than the CBO's score of the AHCA from March 22.

The CBO scored the original version of the AHCA in early-March. The non-partisan research committee estimated the plan would reduce the federal budget deficit by $337 billion over the ten-year horizon. The report also found that 24 million Americans would lose health insurance if Congress passed the AHCA, with a large portion of the loss stemming from Medicaid consumers. (RELATED: CBO Unveils Obamacare Replacement Report)

One of the main concerns regarding Obamacare for lawmakers is the fact that premiums are skyrocketing to levels many Americans cannot afford. (RELATED: Premiums Doubled Once Obamacare Took Effect, Report Says)

The CBO report finds that the AHCA would increase premiums before 2020 by "an average of about 20 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019." In 2020, premium increases would depend on which states were granted waivers to opt out of certain provisions of Obamacare and how said waivers were implemented.

In states that do not apply for waivers, "average premiums in the nongroup market would be about 4 percent lower in 2026" than under current projections for Obamacare. The fall in premiums is mainly due to the participation of "a younger and healthier population" in the insurance marketplace.

Other states that choose to make moderate changes to Obamacare, which the CBO expects to be about 33 percent of states, can expect "average premiums in the nongroup market would be roughly 20 percent lower in 2026 than under current law."

Many of those who lose their insurance are expected to be Medicaid clients who signed up in droves when Obamacare expanded the eligibility requirements.  But about a quarter of those who signed up for Medicaid after Obamacare was implemented were eligible for the program even without the law.  Others likely to lose their insurance include those whose policies were heavily subsidized by government.  The Republican plan to replace some of those subsidies with tax credits won't make a big difference in the number of people who won't be able to afford insurance.

One of my major beefs with this scoring is that it fails to take into account the reaction of the insurance industry.  Will insurance companies offer a wider variety of plans, with differing coverage levels?  If so, it is likely that more people will be able to afford at least some insurance for their families. 

We are no longer at the point where we don't need to repeal Obamacare.  How many people will lose coverage when Obamacare implodes?  Just today, Blue Cross and Blue Shield said they are pulling out of the Kansas and Missouri exchanges next year.  That's another nail in Obamacare's coffin.

The coverage that will be available to people in two or three years without Obamacare reform will be far more expensive with fewer benefits, higher deductibles, and more out-of-pocket expenses.  This is how the program has been proceeding since the start despite hundreds of billions poured into Obamacare to keep it afloat.

At least the GOP alternative – flawed as it is – offers some hope of coverage to most Americans.  Whether the Senate can improve upon this plan remains to be seen.

RECENT VIDEOS