New CNN poll shows Trump in lead over Clinton with a 6-point convention bounce

The pundits who solemnly declared the Republican convention a disaster have been refuted in the way that counts: by public opinion.  A poll released minutes ago by CNN indicates that Donald Trump received a substantial bounce:

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.                      

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

Breaking down the results a bit, Trump is gaining among independents:

Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

The poll was probably not much influenced by news of the Wikileaks hack of the DNC, which reveals even deeper corruption at that party in favoring Clinton over Sanders.  How much it will impact Hillary’s support is unknown, but I have a hard time believing that it will not alienate large numbers of Sanders supporters.

Keep an eye on Johnson and Stein.  They have the opportunity to draw away more votes from Hillary than from Trump, with the levels of disgust over DNC corruption.

The pundits who solemnly declared the Republican convention a disaster have been refuted in the way that counts: by public opinion.  A poll released minutes ago by CNN indicates that Donald Trump received a substantial bounce:

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.                      

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

Breaking down the results a bit, Trump is gaining among independents:

Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

The poll was probably not much influenced by news of the Wikileaks hack of the DNC, which reveals even deeper corruption at that party in favoring Clinton over Sanders.  How much it will impact Hillary’s support is unknown, but I have a hard time believing that it will not alienate large numbers of Sanders supporters.

Keep an eye on Johnson and Stein.  They have the opportunity to draw away more votes from Hillary than from Trump, with the levels of disgust over DNC corruption.