Brexit might not be the final word for Great Britain's EU membership

Most Brexit supporters are walking around these days with their heads in the clouds, glorying in their unlikely victory. 

But is their spiking the ball in the end zone premature?  Could the decision for Great Britain to leave the EU be reversed?

Politico has six possible scenarios with varying odds of occurring that could lead to an unBrexit.

The first is the possibility that another referendum will be ordered:

petition to re-run the referendum has taken off, with over three million signatures already. More than a few Bremorsers voice regret over their vote for Leave, in the wake of the financial and political chaos unleashed on the U.K.

A referendum is not legally binding. In pure constitutional terms it is merely advisory. You can repeat the exercise as wanted, as long as the irrevocable Article 50 formalizing the U.K.’s divorce from Brussels hasn’t been invoked. Cameron said it would be up to the next prime minister, whoever that may be, to apply for thedecree nisi.

There are recent European precedents for ignoring the will of the voters. The Irish voted down the EU’s Lisbon Treaty in 2008 before sheepishly adopting it less than a year later. The Greeks defied their “Troika” masters by saying oxi to their bailout terms last summer. A few days later they were forced to swallow them.

Another scenario: Might the British government use Brexit as leverage to get a better deal from the EU?

Would Brussels stomach it? Jean-Claude Juncker, president of European Commission and no great fan of the U.K., was quick to slap down any talk of any new negotiations with London the day the result was announced. But Angela Merkel, the dominant force in Europe, may be more open to the idea.

Two other scenarios involve the sovereignty of parliament.  Since the referendum is technically only an advisory, there is some speculation that there would be enough M.P.s from both the Labor and Tory parties to block a deal to implement the exit.  Also, if there's an election, the new parliament, by tradition, is not bound by any actions taken by the old parliament. 

Then there's the "Scottish backdoor":

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon — who has emerged, for the moment, as the British leader in office with the most political legitimacy — suggested there might be ways to carve out a separate deal for Scotland, which voted to stay in by 24 percentage points. She has also said the Scottish parliament could also move to stop Britain’s exit from Europe.

When asked about it Sunday, she said her priority was to protect Scotland’s interests, not necessarily push for independence. Most people in Westminster are unconvinced that she would drop the push for a second referendum in two years to leave the U.K. and if successful, look to join the EU as an independent state.

The “associate” option, which would be decried as a sell out by hardline Brexiters, would see the future prime minister try to keep Britain in the EU single market, accepting large tracts of EU law, but with autonomy over agriculture, fishing and trade deals.

No country has ever invoked Article 50 of the EU charter to trigger negotiations for an exit.  The entire continent is in uncharted waters.  There is already speculation that Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande of France will seek to drag out the negotiations, hoping the Remainers will somehow regain the upper hand.  No scenario above and certainly not this one is likely to take place, however.  This puts Great Britain on schedule for an EU exit in January 2019.

Most Brexit supporters are walking around these days with their heads in the clouds, glorying in their unlikely victory. 

But is their spiking the ball in the end zone premature?  Could the decision for Great Britain to leave the EU be reversed?

Politico has six possible scenarios with varying odds of occurring that could lead to an unBrexit.

The first is the possibility that another referendum will be ordered:

petition to re-run the referendum has taken off, with over three million signatures already. More than a few Bremorsers voice regret over their vote for Leave, in the wake of the financial and political chaos unleashed on the U.K.

A referendum is not legally binding. In pure constitutional terms it is merely advisory. You can repeat the exercise as wanted, as long as the irrevocable Article 50 formalizing the U.K.’s divorce from Brussels hasn’t been invoked. Cameron said it would be up to the next prime minister, whoever that may be, to apply for thedecree nisi.

There are recent European precedents for ignoring the will of the voters. The Irish voted down the EU’s Lisbon Treaty in 2008 before sheepishly adopting it less than a year later. The Greeks defied their “Troika” masters by saying oxi to their bailout terms last summer. A few days later they were forced to swallow them.

Another scenario: Might the British government use Brexit as leverage to get a better deal from the EU?

Would Brussels stomach it? Jean-Claude Juncker, president of European Commission and no great fan of the U.K., was quick to slap down any talk of any new negotiations with London the day the result was announced. But Angela Merkel, the dominant force in Europe, may be more open to the idea.

Two other scenarios involve the sovereignty of parliament.  Since the referendum is technically only an advisory, there is some speculation that there would be enough M.P.s from both the Labor and Tory parties to block a deal to implement the exit.  Also, if there's an election, the new parliament, by tradition, is not bound by any actions taken by the old parliament. 

Then there's the "Scottish backdoor":

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon — who has emerged, for the moment, as the British leader in office with the most political legitimacy — suggested there might be ways to carve out a separate deal for Scotland, which voted to stay in by 24 percentage points. She has also said the Scottish parliament could also move to stop Britain’s exit from Europe.

When asked about it Sunday, she said her priority was to protect Scotland’s interests, not necessarily push for independence. Most people in Westminster are unconvinced that she would drop the push for a second referendum in two years to leave the U.K. and if successful, look to join the EU as an independent state.

The “associate” option, which would be decried as a sell out by hardline Brexiters, would see the future prime minister try to keep Britain in the EU single market, accepting large tracts of EU law, but with autonomy over agriculture, fishing and trade deals.

No country has ever invoked Article 50 of the EU charter to trigger negotiations for an exit.  The entire continent is in uncharted waters.  There is already speculation that Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande of France will seek to drag out the negotiations, hoping the Remainers will somehow regain the upper hand.  No scenario above and certainly not this one is likely to take place, however.  This puts Great Britain on schedule for an EU exit in January 2019.