New Rasmussen poll finds Trump ahead of Hillary 41% to 39%

Suddenly, predictions of doom for the GOP with Trump as the nominee seem a bit less certain than the pundit class proclaims.  A new Rasmussen Reports:

…national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If respondents are given the option of staying home:

… six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.

There is a widespread nightmare among Republicans, in which the nomination of Donald Trump leads to a national wipeout for Republicans, handing the presidency and both houses of Congress to the Democrats.  With an assist from the Grim Reaper, the Supreme Court becomes a rubber stamp for whatever policies progressives demand of the government.

All the usual caveats apply: it is far too early for polls to mean anything; a presidential race is a state-by-state affair, so national popularity is not a direct indicator of success; and the large number of undecided and "other" responses makes this far from determinative.

But it is also a dramatic reversal of earlier polls finding Trump impossibly unpopular.  Of course, this poll may be an outlier.  But the clear trend of the Trump campaign has been increasing levels of support and smashing of various “ceilings” of support.

Suddenly, predictions of doom for the GOP with Trump as the nominee seem a bit less certain than the pundit class proclaims.  A new Rasmussen Reports:

…national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If respondents are given the option of staying home:

… six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.

There is a widespread nightmare among Republicans, in which the nomination of Donald Trump leads to a national wipeout for Republicans, handing the presidency and both houses of Congress to the Democrats.  With an assist from the Grim Reaper, the Supreme Court becomes a rubber stamp for whatever policies progressives demand of the government.

All the usual caveats apply: it is far too early for polls to mean anything; a presidential race is a state-by-state affair, so national popularity is not a direct indicator of success; and the large number of undecided and "other" responses makes this far from determinative.

But it is also a dramatic reversal of earlier polls finding Trump impossibly unpopular.  Of course, this poll may be an outlier.  But the clear trend of the Trump campaign has been increasing levels of support and smashing of various “ceilings” of support.