Analysis: 11 states shift toward Democrats

Admitting that the political situation is extremely volatile, the non-partisan Cook Political Report has shifted 11 states toward Democrat Hillary Clinton for the November election.

The Hill:

“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” the analyst said. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.” 

Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin were all shifted from toss-up states to leaning Democratic. The “solid Republican” states Missouri and Indiana were downgraded to “likely Republican.” New Mexico is now solidly Democratic, and North Carolina is a toss-up after leaning Republican.

The analyst also shifted Arizona and Georgia from likely Republican to leaning Republican.

Cook also moved one House race toward Democrats: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which was considered solid for Republicans and is now classified as a toss-up race.

Maine’s 2nd District was the only reclassification that favored the GOP, going from solid Democrat to likely Democrat. The Report classifies congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska because they are the only two states that don’t award their Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

Take this survey as a starting point for Trump.  It highlights the fact that it will be an uphill battle for the Republican to overcome his historic negatives in order to win the White House.

It can be done, but Trump has to either shore up his support among millenials, minorities, and especially women or find a way to depress the turnout for those groups.  The latter might be easier considering what Trump has been saying on the campaign trail.

The bottom line: Clinton has a much larger margin of error than Trump, who will need the stars to align perfectly in order for him to win.

Admitting that the political situation is extremely volatile, the non-partisan Cook Political Report has shifted 11 states toward Democrat Hillary Clinton for the November election.

The Hill:

“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” the analyst said. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.” 

Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin were all shifted from toss-up states to leaning Democratic. The “solid Republican” states Missouri and Indiana were downgraded to “likely Republican.” New Mexico is now solidly Democratic, and North Carolina is a toss-up after leaning Republican.

The analyst also shifted Arizona and Georgia from likely Republican to leaning Republican.

Cook also moved one House race toward Democrats: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which was considered solid for Republicans and is now classified as a toss-up race.

Maine’s 2nd District was the only reclassification that favored the GOP, going from solid Democrat to likely Democrat. The Report classifies congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska because they are the only two states that don’t award their Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

Take this survey as a starting point for Trump.  It highlights the fact that it will be an uphill battle for the Republican to overcome his historic negatives in order to win the White House.

It can be done, but Trump has to either shore up his support among millenials, minorities, and especially women or find a way to depress the turnout for those groups.  The latter might be easier considering what Trump has been saying on the campaign trail.

The bottom line: Clinton has a much larger margin of error than Trump, who will need the stars to align perfectly in order for him to win.