Time to put the simplistic Trump vote theories to bed

A flawed theory was circulating in some circles that Donald Trump's support is driven by the so-called "white trash" vote – a bunch of drug- and alcohol-addicted welfare-dependent white working-class families in places like "West Texas" and "white upstate New York."

Only the West Texas vote didn't fit the pattern.

And now neither does the New York vote.

The graph below shows the county-level median family income plotted against the vote share going to Trump in Tuesday's primary:

Actually, there is a statistically significant trend toward richer counties voting for Trump in greater numbers.

Overall, the best way to look at the data is that there is no simple correlation between the vote going to Trump and socio-economic status.  Polling data nationwide repeatedly show that Trump's support is broadly and fairly evenly distributed across income class, education level, and a host of other variables, meaning he is winning the GOP nomination race not based on the "white trash" vote.

It's also worth noting that all previous Republican presidential candidates in the modern era who won both (or even either of) the New York and Florida primaries – as Trump did – have gone on to receive the final nomination.

A flawed theory was circulating in some circles that Donald Trump's support is driven by the so-called "white trash" vote – a bunch of drug- and alcohol-addicted welfare-dependent white working-class families in places like "West Texas" and "white upstate New York."

Only the West Texas vote didn't fit the pattern.

And now neither does the New York vote.

The graph below shows the county-level median family income plotted against the vote share going to Trump in Tuesday's primary:

Actually, there is a statistically significant trend toward richer counties voting for Trump in greater numbers.

Overall, the best way to look at the data is that there is no simple correlation between the vote going to Trump and socio-economic status.  Polling data nationwide repeatedly show that Trump's support is broadly and fairly evenly distributed across income class, education level, and a host of other variables, meaning he is winning the GOP nomination race not based on the "white trash" vote.

It's also worth noting that all previous Republican presidential candidates in the modern era who won both (or even either of) the New York and Florida primaries – as Trump did – have gone on to receive the final nomination.