Trump's popularity continues to sink despite closing in on GOP nomination

The most recent polls show that Donald Trump's support in the Republican party is inching toward 50%. But overall, his favorability rating makes him potentially the most unpopular major party candidate in history.

Looking at it another way, the Republican party makes up about 25% of the electorate and Trump is supported by about half of that number. Clearly, the candidate is going to have to garner a huge share of independents while stealing some Democratic voters in order to win the White House.

Standing in his way is an unprecedented unfavorability rating that GOP delegates will be watching closely as the campaign moves toward the convention in late July.

Politico:

How bad are Trump’s image ratings? The HuffPost Pollster average of recent national polls puts Trump’s favorability at only 31 percent, while 63 percent view him unfavorably.

That’s a notable decline from late January, on the eve of the first votes in the GOP nominating process, when Trump’s average favorability rating was 37 percent, with 57 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Trump is hardly alone: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably by majorities of Americans, according to polling averages. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders – both of whom haven’t faced many negative attacks from either party – have positive image ratings.

Among Republicans, Trump’s numbers aren’t stellar, but they have been durable – even as the other GOP candidates have trained their fire on him. Polls earlier this month from CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac University show Trump’s overall favorability rating tanking, but the figures are virtually unchanged among Republicans: A little more than 60 percent view him favorably, and about a third have an unfavorable opinion of him.

But the remainder of Republican primaries – which resume next week in Wisconsin – will be held at the state level. And in a three-way race with Cruz and Kasich, the forces aiming to halt Trump’s march to the nomination will continue to chip away further at Trump’s image.

Some of the anti-Trump groups have chosen to target female Republicans, betting that Trump’s past – and some current – statements about women would alienate those voters. Data from the states that have already voted bear that out: Trump has run, on average, 7 points better among male voters in the 17 states where there have been entrance or exit polls, than among female voters.

All is not lost, however. Trump's favorability rating could rise significantly if he wraps up the nomination. Mitt Romney's horrible favorability numbers went up following the convention in 2012. Republicans who today swear they'll never vote for Trump could get behind the candidate once the primary race is over.

But the intensity of dislike for Trump as a candidate has never been seen before. In the latest poll 50% have a "very unfavorable" view of the candidate. If Trump is to prevail in November, he has  a lot of mind changing to do if he is to have a good chance.  


 

 

The most recent polls show that Donald Trump's support in the Republican party is inching toward 50%. But overall, his favorability rating makes him potentially the most unpopular major party candidate in history.

Looking at it another way, the Republican party makes up about 25% of the electorate and Trump is supported by about half of that number. Clearly, the candidate is going to have to garner a huge share of independents while stealing some Democratic voters in order to win the White House.

Standing in his way is an unprecedented unfavorability rating that GOP delegates will be watching closely as the campaign moves toward the convention in late July.

Politico:

How bad are Trump’s image ratings? The HuffPost Pollster average of recent national polls puts Trump’s favorability at only 31 percent, while 63 percent view him unfavorably.

That’s a notable decline from late January, on the eve of the first votes in the GOP nominating process, when Trump’s average favorability rating was 37 percent, with 57 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Trump is hardly alone: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably by majorities of Americans, according to polling averages. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders – both of whom haven’t faced many negative attacks from either party – have positive image ratings.

Among Republicans, Trump’s numbers aren’t stellar, but they have been durable – even as the other GOP candidates have trained their fire on him. Polls earlier this month from CNN/ORC and Quinnipiac University show Trump’s overall favorability rating tanking, but the figures are virtually unchanged among Republicans: A little more than 60 percent view him favorably, and about a third have an unfavorable opinion of him.

But the remainder of Republican primaries – which resume next week in Wisconsin – will be held at the state level. And in a three-way race with Cruz and Kasich, the forces aiming to halt Trump’s march to the nomination will continue to chip away further at Trump’s image.

Some of the anti-Trump groups have chosen to target female Republicans, betting that Trump’s past – and some current – statements about women would alienate those voters. Data from the states that have already voted bear that out: Trump has run, on average, 7 points better among male voters in the 17 states where there have been entrance or exit polls, than among female voters.

All is not lost, however. Trump's favorability rating could rise significantly if he wraps up the nomination. Mitt Romney's horrible favorability numbers went up following the convention in 2012. Republicans who today swear they'll never vote for Trump could get behind the candidate once the primary race is over.

But the intensity of dislike for Trump as a candidate has never been seen before. In the latest poll 50% have a "very unfavorable" view of the candidate. If Trump is to prevail in November, he has  a lot of mind changing to do if he is to have a good chance.