Projection: Non-Hispanic whites will be minority of US population by 2025

In late 2015, the Pew Research Center came out with a population projection that "non-Hispanic whites are projected to become less than half of the US population by 2055."

Similarly, during 2014, researchers working with U.S. Census Bureau data claimed that non-Hispanic whites would fall into minority status by 2045.

In fact, the U.S. Census Bureau data suggests that this event will almost assuredly happen far earlier than these estimates, likely by 2025 if current trends continue.  The non-Hispanic white and Hispanic populations are expected to subsequently cross at about 35% each in the early 2040s.

The estimate of the rapidly falling non-Hispanic white percentage is probably conservative (i.e., the actual decline is much steeper than shown above), as the census data likely underestimates the large numbers of dominantly Hispanic illegal immigrants already in the country that would further lower the non-Hispanic white proportion.

In late 2015, the Pew Research Center came out with a population projection that "non-Hispanic whites are projected to become less than half of the US population by 2055."

Similarly, during 2014, researchers working with U.S. Census Bureau data claimed that non-Hispanic whites would fall into minority status by 2045.

In fact, the U.S. Census Bureau data suggests that this event will almost assuredly happen far earlier than these estimates, likely by 2025 if current trends continue.  The non-Hispanic white and Hispanic populations are expected to subsequently cross at about 35% each in the early 2040s.

The estimate of the rapidly falling non-Hispanic white percentage is probably conservative (i.e., the actual decline is much steeper than shown above), as the census data likely underestimates the large numbers of dominantly Hispanic illegal immigrants already in the country that would further lower the non-Hispanic white proportion.