If century-long trends continue, Canada will be a Muslim-majority nation by 2050

While some claim there is a myth of the so-called “Muslim tide,” and that Western democracies will not become Muslim-majority nations, the data tell a very different story.

A lesson in math and the concept of exponential growth is required for those who are quick to dismiss such possibilities.

Case in point is Canada.  Back in 1854, there were just three Muslims in what was then Upper Canada.  By 1871, there were 17.  This rose to 478 in 1921, 1,800 in 1951, 33,430 in 1971, more than 253,000 in 1991, and over 1.05 million during the last census in 2011.

Over this period, the percentage of the Canadian population that is Muslim has been doubling approximately every decade.  In 1901, 0.0009% of the population was Muslim.  As of 2011, it was 3.2%.  When this consistent century-long growth rate is extrapolated into the future, Canada becomes a majority-Muslim country before 2050.

Predicting future demographic changes of this nature is clearly difficult, given how they are controlled by differing trends in relative birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates by religion.  But if the past 110 years is any guide, Canada could be an Islamic state by mid-century.

While some claim there is a myth of the so-called “Muslim tide,” and that Western democracies will not become Muslim-majority nations, the data tell a very different story.

A lesson in math and the concept of exponential growth is required for those who are quick to dismiss such possibilities.

Case in point is Canada.  Back in 1854, there were just three Muslims in what was then Upper Canada.  By 1871, there were 17.  This rose to 478 in 1921, 1,800 in 1951, 33,430 in 1971, more than 253,000 in 1991, and over 1.05 million during the last census in 2011.

Over this period, the percentage of the Canadian population that is Muslim has been doubling approximately every decade.  In 1901, 0.0009% of the population was Muslim.  As of 2011, it was 3.2%.  When this consistent century-long growth rate is extrapolated into the future, Canada becomes a majority-Muslim country before 2050.

Predicting future demographic changes of this nature is clearly difficult, given how they are controlled by differing trends in relative birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates by religion.  But if the past 110 years is any guide, Canada could be an Islamic state by mid-century.