Independent run by Bloomberg would help Trump: Poll

If former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg carries through and runs for president as an independent, a Reuters poll shows that his candidacy would hurt the Democrats and give a boost to Donald Trump.

In a matchup between Trump and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, adding Bloomberg's name to the ballot would trim Clinton's lead over Trump to six percentage points from 10, according to the poll conducted from Jan. 23 to Jan. 27.

In a Trump versus Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders matchup, adding Bloomberg would erode Sanders' lead over Trump to seven points from 12, the poll results showed.

In all matchups, Bloomberg himself would land just 10 percent or less of the vote in November.

The 73-year-old financial information industry billionaire, who earned a reputation as a social liberal with strong Wall Street ties during his time as New York City mayor, has considered a White House run for years.

According to recent media reports, he would be especially interested in running if Trump and Sanders win their party nominations, and would spend at least $1 billion of his own money to drive his campaign.

The Reuters polls have consistently undercounted Trump's support compared to other polling outfits. But the poll makes sense. Bloomberg is a social liberal but he is also a philosophical liberal on many issues, including support for government interference in the personal lives of citizens. He would draw more moderate Democrats and even some liberals away from Hillary Clinton. It's hard to imagine too many current Trump supporters who would be enamored of the former NY city mayor.

I think Bloomberg would harm Clinton in the south, not so much the east, and it might be a wash in the midwest and west. It's hard to calculate what that means in the electoral college but Clinton might be hurt by Bloomberg in some key toss up states like Florida and New Hampshire where Democrats are more moderate than other states.

Bloomberg has to decide by late February or early March if he is serious about an independent bid for president. Any longer and he risks not being able to get on the ballot in all 50 states. His problem is that there's a pretty good chance that both the Democratic and Republican nomination races will still be up in the air at that time so his desired match up with Sanders/Trump might not be settled.

 

If former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg carries through and runs for president as an independent, a Reuters poll shows that his candidacy would hurt the Democrats and give a boost to Donald Trump.

In a matchup between Trump and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, adding Bloomberg's name to the ballot would trim Clinton's lead over Trump to six percentage points from 10, according to the poll conducted from Jan. 23 to Jan. 27.

In a Trump versus Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders matchup, adding Bloomberg would erode Sanders' lead over Trump to seven points from 12, the poll results showed.

In all matchups, Bloomberg himself would land just 10 percent or less of the vote in November.

The 73-year-old financial information industry billionaire, who earned a reputation as a social liberal with strong Wall Street ties during his time as New York City mayor, has considered a White House run for years.

According to recent media reports, he would be especially interested in running if Trump and Sanders win their party nominations, and would spend at least $1 billion of his own money to drive his campaign.

The Reuters polls have consistently undercounted Trump's support compared to other polling outfits. But the poll makes sense. Bloomberg is a social liberal but he is also a philosophical liberal on many issues, including support for government interference in the personal lives of citizens. He would draw more moderate Democrats and even some liberals away from Hillary Clinton. It's hard to imagine too many current Trump supporters who would be enamored of the former NY city mayor.

I think Bloomberg would harm Clinton in the south, not so much the east, and it might be a wash in the midwest and west. It's hard to calculate what that means in the electoral college but Clinton might be hurt by Bloomberg in some key toss up states like Florida and New Hampshire where Democrats are more moderate than other states.

Bloomberg has to decide by late February or early March if he is serious about an independent bid for president. Any longer and he risks not being able to get on the ballot in all 50 states. His problem is that there's a pretty good chance that both the Democratic and Republican nomination races will still be up in the air at that time so his desired match up with Sanders/Trump might not be settled.