Ted Cruz is surging in Iowa; indeed, I believe he is favored to win there.  But even so, Donald Trump is still currently the candidate favored to win the nomination.  Let's go over the chances for Trump, Cruz, and Rubio one by one. Donald Trump: 50% chance of winning the nomination.  Some polls have Trump ahead in Iowa; others have Ted Cruz ahead.  Regardless, Trump is in such a strong position that he can afford to come in second in Iowa and still be the favorite.  He's heavily favored in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Remember the magic 32% number.  That's roughly the number that Trump needs to average state by state to win the nomination outright.  It's less than 51% because of the many states that award delegates based on a winner-take-all system.  Right now Trump is at 33% in national polls, though it varies wildly from poll to poll from 27% to 41%. But even if Trump slips in popularity and gets only 40%...(Read Full Post)