Hillary losing ground in new CNN-ORC poll

There is bad news for Hillary Clinton in a new poll released late yesterday by CNN.  There is evidence that confidence in her is eroding among Democrats.  The question below asked:

Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee or do they have a better chance of winning with someone else as the party's nominee?

 

She has lost 10% among Democrats thinking the party has a better chance with her as the nominee. To be sure, 59% is still landslide territory (among her own party’s partisans), but confidence is eroding. And that has to mean that enthusiasm is also waning, which has strong implications for voter turnout drives. To win, a Democrat must drive turnout among black voters to levels achieved by Barack Obama. This has always seemed unlikely to me, no matter how many times Hillary affects a Southern accent. But with enthusiasm waning, it will become even more difficult.

Matched head-to-head with Republican potential nominees, Hillary has also slipped.

If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --?

Since October, her margin of victory over Trump has shrunk from 5 points to two, well within the poll’s margin of error. Factor in the possible reluctance of people to express support for Trump to a stranger, given the media demonization, Trump may be even leading her.

With Marco Rubio, the news is worse for Hillary:

If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Marco Rubio were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vot for ?

Hillary has lost two points in less than a month, while Rubio held steady and now beats her by 3 points

And with Ted Cruz, Hillary has gone from a one point lead to a two point deficit in the same period of a few weeks:

 

 

There is bad news for Hillary Clinton in a new poll released late yesterday by CNN.  There is evidence that confidence in her is eroding among Democrats.  The question below asked:

Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2016 if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee or do they have a better chance of winning with someone else as the party's nominee?

 

She has lost 10% among Democrats thinking the party has a better chance with her as the nominee. To be sure, 59% is still landslide territory (among her own party’s partisans), but confidence is eroding. And that has to mean that enthusiasm is also waning, which has strong implications for voter turnout drives. To win, a Democrat must drive turnout among black voters to levels achieved by Barack Obama. This has always seemed unlikely to me, no matter how many times Hillary affects a Southern accent. But with enthusiasm waning, it will become even more difficult.

Matched head-to-head with Republican potential nominees, Hillary has also slipped.

If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --?

Since October, her margin of victory over Trump has shrunk from 5 points to two, well within the poll’s margin of error. Factor in the possible reluctance of people to express support for Trump to a stranger, given the media demonization, Trump may be even leading her.

With Marco Rubio, the news is worse for Hillary:

If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Marco Rubio were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vot for ?

Hillary has lost two points in less than a month, while Rubio held steady and now beats her by 3 points

And with Ted Cruz, Hillary has gone from a one point lead to a two point deficit in the same period of a few weeks: