Fiorina leads in NH in post-debate flash poll

A new poll published Friday shows Carly Fiorina vaulting to the top of the heap in New Hampshire with 22% support, compared to Donald Trump with 18% and Dr. Ben Carson with 10%.

The poll was conducted by Voter Gravity, a relative newcomer to the industry, who described their methodology on their site:

In Voter Gravity’s latest presidential flash poll through touchtone phone responses, we surveyed 2,839 New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters the day after the CNN Debate, and they put Carly Fiorina in the top spot at 22%.

Consistent with our usual targets for polling, everyone in the poll had voted in the last 3 Republican Primary and General Elections in addition to the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Primary.

There are no crosstabs to examine, the company does not appear in Nate Silver's pollster rankings, and there is very little information about the company on the web.  So before acknowledging the accuracy of this poll, we should probably await confirmation – or contradiction – from other sources. 

One other point: this poll used only very likely voters.  If you think Donald Trump is galvanizing people who haven't voted in GOP primaries before, Trump's support is probably understated in the poll.

I think what we can say with some confidence is that Fiorina got a big boost from the debate.  The polls in Iowa and New Hampshire that come out next week should be very interesting.

A new poll published Friday shows Carly Fiorina vaulting to the top of the heap in New Hampshire with 22% support, compared to Donald Trump with 18% and Dr. Ben Carson with 10%.

The poll was conducted by Voter Gravity, a relative newcomer to the industry, who described their methodology on their site:

In Voter Gravity’s latest presidential flash poll through touchtone phone responses, we surveyed 2,839 New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters the day after the CNN Debate, and they put Carly Fiorina in the top spot at 22%.

Consistent with our usual targets for polling, everyone in the poll had voted in the last 3 Republican Primary and General Elections in addition to the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Primary.

There are no crosstabs to examine, the company does not appear in Nate Silver's pollster rankings, and there is very little information about the company on the web.  So before acknowledging the accuracy of this poll, we should probably await confirmation – or contradiction – from other sources. 

One other point: this poll used only very likely voters.  If you think Donald Trump is galvanizing people who haven't voted in GOP primaries before, Trump's support is probably understated in the poll.

I think what we can say with some confidence is that Fiorina got a big boost from the debate.  The polls in Iowa and New Hampshire that come out next week should be very interesting.