It begins: Hillary's standing in polls starts to plummet

I am hoping that Hillary Clinton hangs in there, bullying her way to the Democratic nomination, but her polling is starting to collapse. Amanda Becker of Reuters notices what is going on, not just among the general public, but among Democrat insiders:

Democratic support for Hillary Clinton's expected presidential campaign is softening amid controversy over her use of personal email when secretary of state, but most Democrats are for now sticking by their party's presumed candidate.

Support for Clinton's candidacy has dropped about 15 percentage points since mid February among Democrats, with as few as 45 percent saying they would support her in the last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll. Support from Democrats likely to vote in the party nominating contests has dropped only slightly less, to a low in the mid-50s over the same period.

A 15% decline in a month is no small matter, nor is the fact that less than half of the Democrats supporting her. But the really critical fact is this:

Even Democrats who said they were not personally swayed one way or another by the email flap said that Clinton could fare worse because of it, if and when she launches her presidential campaign, a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

The perception is that she is sinking, and unless she is somehow able to answer questions about her email server satisfactorily (almost zero probability), even people who like her will fear that she will drag down the party.

There is still a decent chance that Hillary’s “it’s my turn” mentality will keep her going, along with her desire to gain vengeance on the Obama machine that humiliated her in 2008. But my desire for a wounded Democrat dividing her party as its nominee won’t be enough to keep her in the race. Hillary may be facing the long goodbye.

I am hoping that Hillary Clinton hangs in there, bullying her way to the Democratic nomination, but her polling is starting to collapse. Amanda Becker of Reuters notices what is going on, not just among the general public, but among Democrat insiders:

Democratic support for Hillary Clinton's expected presidential campaign is softening amid controversy over her use of personal email when secretary of state, but most Democrats are for now sticking by their party's presumed candidate.

Support for Clinton's candidacy has dropped about 15 percentage points since mid February among Democrats, with as few as 45 percent saying they would support her in the last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll. Support from Democrats likely to vote in the party nominating contests has dropped only slightly less, to a low in the mid-50s over the same period.

A 15% decline in a month is no small matter, nor is the fact that less than half of the Democrats supporting her. But the really critical fact is this:

Even Democrats who said they were not personally swayed one way or another by the email flap said that Clinton could fare worse because of it, if and when she launches her presidential campaign, a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

The perception is that she is sinking, and unless she is somehow able to answer questions about her email server satisfactorily (almost zero probability), even people who like her will fear that she will drag down the party.

There is still a decent chance that Hillary’s “it’s my turn” mentality will keep her going, along with her desire to gain vengeance on the Obama machine that humiliated her in 2008. But my desire for a wounded Democrat dividing her party as its nominee won’t be enough to keep her in the race. Hillary may be facing the long goodbye.