Every Republican candidate for president in 2016 should read this article

Doug Sosnik is one of those guys you've never heard of, but has a major impact on campaigns. He's a "big picture" political analyst whose specialty is spotting trends in the electorate.

Sosnik penned a sharp, concise analysis of the coming "hinge" moment in American politics. It's not just demographics that is leading to a political revolution; it's the technological and economic changes in America that will alter who we are as a country.

Now, though, there are signs that the transformation is starting to pick up steam in our elections. Even though we have yet to feel the full impact at the ballot box we’re nearing a shift that will signal an inevitable political earthquake.

Years from now we are going to look back at this period of time and see it as a “hinge” moment, a term Princeton Physicist Freeman Dyson used to describe a connection point that ties two historical periods in time, one before and one afterwards.

The University of Virginia historian Philip Zelikow has observed that “for only the third time since the founding of the United States we are in the early or transition phase of a new era in American and global history.” He goes on to say that “from the narrower point of view of economic and social history, however, we are in the early stages of a transition phase faster than anything we have encountered in more than 100 years, the largest since the economic and industrial revolutions of the late 19th and early 20th century.”

As the Industrial Revolution made clear, these kinds of moments don’t happen overnight; they build over time. Like then, a series of factors are now contributing to the tipping point we are rapidly approaching—most notably the economic uncertainty, global instability and technological advances that the country is experiencing. On top of these drivers, there is a demographic transformation taking place that is literally changing who we are as a country.

If next year’s 2016 presidential election is a close one, the changes that we are now only seeing on the margins could play a significant role in shaping the outcome. In the future, these changes will define our politics deep into this century.

The facts and figures surrounding the coming earthquake are telling. As of now, there are only 5 states considered to be true "toss ups." In the last 6 elections, 31 states have voted for one party or the other every time. Eight states have voted for the same party 5 out of 6 times. As the demographics in many of those states change to a majority-minority status, voting patterns are likely to change as well.

Sosnik says the candidate who understand this will probably win the election in 2016:

Four of the five battleground states that have been decisive in recent presidential elections—Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada—all have the central attributes of 21st century America and will prove to be decisive if 2016 is a close election.

Next year’s election is the midpoint between 1992 when the current phase of presidential politics began and 2040, which is around the time that most projections have us approaching a majority-minority country, one in which no race will constitute the majority of Americans.

While the 2016 presidential election is likely to reflect the last remnants of this bygone era, the candidate running for president in 2016 who best understands how the country is changing and runs a campaign based on the America of the future rather than the America of the past is most likely to be our 45th president.

The Republican who shows an understand of where America is headed should do very well in 2016.

Doug Sosnik is one of those guys you've never heard of, but has a major impact on campaigns. He's a "big picture" political analyst whose specialty is spotting trends in the electorate.

Sosnik penned a sharp, concise analysis of the coming "hinge" moment in American politics. It's not just demographics that is leading to a political revolution; it's the technological and economic changes in America that will alter who we are as a country.

Now, though, there are signs that the transformation is starting to pick up steam in our elections. Even though we have yet to feel the full impact at the ballot box we’re nearing a shift that will signal an inevitable political earthquake.

Years from now we are going to look back at this period of time and see it as a “hinge” moment, a term Princeton Physicist Freeman Dyson used to describe a connection point that ties two historical periods in time, one before and one afterwards.

The University of Virginia historian Philip Zelikow has observed that “for only the third time since the founding of the United States we are in the early or transition phase of a new era in American and global history.” He goes on to say that “from the narrower point of view of economic and social history, however, we are in the early stages of a transition phase faster than anything we have encountered in more than 100 years, the largest since the economic and industrial revolutions of the late 19th and early 20th century.”

As the Industrial Revolution made clear, these kinds of moments don’t happen overnight; they build over time. Like then, a series of factors are now contributing to the tipping point we are rapidly approaching—most notably the economic uncertainty, global instability and technological advances that the country is experiencing. On top of these drivers, there is a demographic transformation taking place that is literally changing who we are as a country.

If next year’s 2016 presidential election is a close one, the changes that we are now only seeing on the margins could play a significant role in shaping the outcome. In the future, these changes will define our politics deep into this century.

The facts and figures surrounding the coming earthquake are telling. As of now, there are only 5 states considered to be true "toss ups." In the last 6 elections, 31 states have voted for one party or the other every time. Eight states have voted for the same party 5 out of 6 times. As the demographics in many of those states change to a majority-minority status, voting patterns are likely to change as well.

Sosnik says the candidate who understand this will probably win the election in 2016:

Four of the five battleground states that have been decisive in recent presidential elections—Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada—all have the central attributes of 21st century America and will prove to be decisive if 2016 is a close election.

Next year’s election is the midpoint between 1992 when the current phase of presidential politics began and 2040, which is around the time that most projections have us approaching a majority-minority country, one in which no race will constitute the majority of Americans.

While the 2016 presidential election is likely to reflect the last remnants of this bygone era, the candidate running for president in 2016 who best understands how the country is changing and runs a campaign based on the America of the future rather than the America of the past is most likely to be our 45th president.

The Republican who shows an understand of where America is headed should do very well in 2016.