Let the Climate Hammer Fall in New York

Over at Salon.com, an article describes how "Global warming is going to hammer New York":

"The mean annual temperature over Central Park, it finds, has already increased 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the period between 1900 and 2013. It could continue to rise by anywhere from 4.1 to 5.7 degrees by the 2050s, and by 5.3 to 8.8 degrees by the 2080s, as compared to a 1980s baseline, while the frequency of heat waves triples. Precipitation, likewise, has already increased (by 8 inches in that same period) and is projected to continue to do so, by as much as 13 percent over 1980s levels."

That is interesting. Over at the NOAA National Weather Service database, the Central Park area in New York City has a woefully incomplete temperature record over the period of interest.

All those "M" entries mean data is missing for that particular month, which means the annual temperature for that year cannot be reliably calculated. This pattern of missing data carries on up to 1948. The first year with complete monthly records for Central Park is 1949. In other words, we really have no idea what Central Park's climate was like before 1949.

It is also important to add that over the last 30 years, Central Park has no sign of a significant trend in its annual temperature. There isn't even a significant trend since 1970.

And about that increasing annual precipitation -- Central Park has absolutely no significant trend in annual precipitation since 1970, or over the last three decades.

Finally, about those heat waves. There is an effective perfect non-correlation in the number of days per year above 95 F since records begin in 1949 for Central Park. No hint of significant trends since 1970 or 1985 either. Actually, the last three decades have seen a negative correlation towards fewer extreme heat days -- not more -- in the Central Park area.

Unwarranted alarmism? It sure appears to be the case.

Over at Salon.com, an article describes how "Global warming is going to hammer New York":

"The mean annual temperature over Central Park, it finds, has already increased 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the period between 1900 and 2013. It could continue to rise by anywhere from 4.1 to 5.7 degrees by the 2050s, and by 5.3 to 8.8 degrees by the 2080s, as compared to a 1980s baseline, while the frequency of heat waves triples. Precipitation, likewise, has already increased (by 8 inches in that same period) and is projected to continue to do so, by as much as 13 percent over 1980s levels."

That is interesting. Over at the NOAA National Weather Service database, the Central Park area in New York City has a woefully incomplete temperature record over the period of interest.

All those "M" entries mean data is missing for that particular month, which means the annual temperature for that year cannot be reliably calculated. This pattern of missing data carries on up to 1948. The first year with complete monthly records for Central Park is 1949. In other words, we really have no idea what Central Park's climate was like before 1949.

It is also important to add that over the last 30 years, Central Park has no sign of a significant trend in its annual temperature. There isn't even a significant trend since 1970.

And about that increasing annual precipitation -- Central Park has absolutely no significant trend in annual precipitation since 1970, or over the last three decades.

Finally, about those heat waves. There is an effective perfect non-correlation in the number of days per year above 95 F since records begin in 1949 for Central Park. No hint of significant trends since 1970 or 1985 either. Actually, the last three decades have seen a negative correlation towards fewer extreme heat days -- not more -- in the Central Park area.

Unwarranted alarmism? It sure appears to be the case.