The Midwest's nonexistent extreme heat apocalypse

In the latest Risky Business Project report on the projected impacts of climate change for the American Midwest, the predictions are dire indeed.  And they are getting the mainstream media's attention, highlighting – yet again – how climate realists need to do a much better job getting the facts out in front of the public.

One core focus of the latest Risky Business report is on the number of extreme heat days that the Midwest is predicted to see:

On our current emissions path, residents of St. Louis will see the average number of days over 95 F per year likely double to quadruple within the next 5 to 25 years.

Over the past 30 years, St. Louis has experienced only about 8 days over 95 F each year on average. If we continue on our current path, it will see a likely increase to 16 to 35 extremely hot days on average in the near term, and 49 to 126 extremely hot days by end of century ...

Of all the Midwest metro areas we studied, Kansas City has had the highest average number of days over 95 F over the past 30 years, at around 10 each year on average. These extremely hot days will only increase if we stay on our current emissions path, with a likely increase of 16 to 29 extremely hot days on average over the next 5 to 25 years, a likely jump of 21 to 51 such days by mid-century, and 46 to 105 extremely hot days likely by the end of this century ...

Similar to its southern Midwest neighbors, Indianapolis will likely experience significant increases in extremely hot days as a result of climate change, so long as we stay on our current emissions pathway. The area's current 30-year average for days over 95 F is roughly 2 days per year, but this will likely increase to 3 to 13 days per year on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 8 to 30 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 21 to 92 days -- more than 3 months -- of extremely hot days by the end of this century ...

With its focus on energy-intensive manufacturing, logistics, insurance, and national security, this area is in some ways a perfect storm of industries vulnerable to climate risk. As with the other southern Midwest metro areas, the main climate risk to the Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton area is from extreme heat. On average over the past 30 years, this area experienced 2 days of over 95 F each year; this number is expected to grow, with 5 to 14 days likely on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 10 to 30 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 25 to 90 days likely over 95 F by century-end ...

Climate risks from increased heat are particularly severe in cities of this size and population density. In Chicago's case, rising heat levels can have serious consequences. The area has seen an average of 3 days above 95 F per year over the past 30 years, but if we continue on our current emissions pathway, this number will likely rise by 5 to 13 days over the near term, 9 to 30 extremely hot days by mid-century, and 20 to 83 days over 95 F likely by the end of the century ...

In Des Moines, which has seen an average of about 4 days over 95 F each year for the past 30 years, our current emissions pathway will likely result in 8 to 17 such days per year on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 12 to 35 extremely hot days likely per year by mid-century, and 34 to 89 days over 95 F likely by the end of this century ...

The Cleveland/Toledo area has had, on average, fewer than one day over 95 F each year over the past 30 years. Our current emissions pathway will likely result in 2 to 5 such days each year over the next 5 to 25 years, 3 to 14 extremely hot days per year by mid-century, and 10 to 66 days over 95 F likely by the end of this century ...

Though this area will not see the sheer number of extremely hot days that some of the southern Midwest cities will experience as a result of climate change, Minneapolis-St. Paul will likely see a dramatic rise in days over 95 F if we stay on our current emissions path. This metro area has had, on average, 2 days per year of 95 F or higher over the past 30 years, but this number will likely rise to 3 to 7 days per year over the near term, 6 to 19 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 15 to 62 days over 95 F likely per year by the end of the century ...

The Madison/Milwaukee region is not known for its extremely warm weather, boasting only 1.2 days per year over 95 F on average during the past 30 years. If we stay on our current emission pathway, this will change: The metro region will likely see 2 to 7 extremely hot days on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 4 to 17 such days likely by mid-century, and 11 to 59 days -- nearly two months -- over 95 F likely by the end of the century.

In our analysis, Detroit's climate risks are primarily heat-related: The metro region, which saw only 1.3 days on average over 95 F over the past 30 years, will see a likely increase in these days of 3 to 7 over the next 5 to 25 years, 5 to 16 likely by mid-century, and 15 to 67 extremely hot days per year likely by end of century.

A long read, to be sure, but the public needs to see the original claims firsthand to understand the magnitude of the problem in restoring sanity to climate science.

To recap, we have predictions that the number of days above 95° F each year in St. Louis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton, Chicago, Des Moines, Cleveland/Toledo, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Madison/Milwaukee, and Detroit are going to skyrocket over the next few years and keep exploding for the remainder of the 21st century due to climate change.

It's not even clear where the "past 30 years" data came from.  For example, the Risky Business report claims that "over the past 30 years, St. Louis has experienced only about 8 days over 95 F each year on average."  The NOAA National Weather Service database says there have been, on average, 12 days -- not 8 – over 95° F each year for the St. Louis area.  That is 50 percent higher.  Similar problems exist for other cities.

But the real problem with these predictions, and the corresponding alarmist rhetoric, is that they fail to fully discuss the historic record and trends for hot days in each metropolitan region.

Not a single one of these areas has a significant increasing trend in the number of days over 95° F each year either since 1895, or over the past 30 years.  Not one.  In fact, most of the correlations over the past 30 years have been toward fewer extreme heat days, not more.  How is that consistent with anthropogenic climate change hysteria?

Furthermore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Columbus all very nearly have significant trends during the last 120 years toward fewer extreme heat days.  The only significant trend for the number of days over 95° F each year since 1895 among all these metropolitan areas was for Dayton – and its trend is highly significant toward fewer extreme heat days.

And if conservatives want to see why much of the public is skeptical about Wall Street and Big Agriculture, look at the key players from the corporatist world involved in these types of projects.  The public is being rammed head-first between a rock (big government) and a hard place (corporatism – another form of big government), with few political options outside this.

In the latest Risky Business Project report on the projected impacts of climate change for the American Midwest, the predictions are dire indeed.  And they are getting the mainstream media's attention, highlighting – yet again – how climate realists need to do a much better job getting the facts out in front of the public.

One core focus of the latest Risky Business report is on the number of extreme heat days that the Midwest is predicted to see:

On our current emissions path, residents of St. Louis will see the average number of days over 95 F per year likely double to quadruple within the next 5 to 25 years.

Over the past 30 years, St. Louis has experienced only about 8 days over 95 F each year on average. If we continue on our current path, it will see a likely increase to 16 to 35 extremely hot days on average in the near term, and 49 to 126 extremely hot days by end of century ...

Of all the Midwest metro areas we studied, Kansas City has had the highest average number of days over 95 F over the past 30 years, at around 10 each year on average. These extremely hot days will only increase if we stay on our current emissions path, with a likely increase of 16 to 29 extremely hot days on average over the next 5 to 25 years, a likely jump of 21 to 51 such days by mid-century, and 46 to 105 extremely hot days likely by the end of this century ...

Similar to its southern Midwest neighbors, Indianapolis will likely experience significant increases in extremely hot days as a result of climate change, so long as we stay on our current emissions pathway. The area's current 30-year average for days over 95 F is roughly 2 days per year, but this will likely increase to 3 to 13 days per year on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 8 to 30 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 21 to 92 days -- more than 3 months -- of extremely hot days by the end of this century ...

With its focus on energy-intensive manufacturing, logistics, insurance, and national security, this area is in some ways a perfect storm of industries vulnerable to climate risk. As with the other southern Midwest metro areas, the main climate risk to the Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton area is from extreme heat. On average over the past 30 years, this area experienced 2 days of over 95 F each year; this number is expected to grow, with 5 to 14 days likely on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 10 to 30 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 25 to 90 days likely over 95 F by century-end ...

Climate risks from increased heat are particularly severe in cities of this size and population density. In Chicago's case, rising heat levels can have serious consequences. The area has seen an average of 3 days above 95 F per year over the past 30 years, but if we continue on our current emissions pathway, this number will likely rise by 5 to 13 days over the near term, 9 to 30 extremely hot days by mid-century, and 20 to 83 days over 95 F likely by the end of the century ...

In Des Moines, which has seen an average of about 4 days over 95 F each year for the past 30 years, our current emissions pathway will likely result in 8 to 17 such days per year on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 12 to 35 extremely hot days likely per year by mid-century, and 34 to 89 days over 95 F likely by the end of this century ...

The Cleveland/Toledo area has had, on average, fewer than one day over 95 F each year over the past 30 years. Our current emissions pathway will likely result in 2 to 5 such days each year over the next 5 to 25 years, 3 to 14 extremely hot days per year by mid-century, and 10 to 66 days over 95 F likely by the end of this century ...

Though this area will not see the sheer number of extremely hot days that some of the southern Midwest cities will experience as a result of climate change, Minneapolis-St. Paul will likely see a dramatic rise in days over 95 F if we stay on our current emissions path. This metro area has had, on average, 2 days per year of 95 F or higher over the past 30 years, but this number will likely rise to 3 to 7 days per year over the near term, 6 to 19 extremely hot days likely by mid-century, and 15 to 62 days over 95 F likely per year by the end of the century ...

The Madison/Milwaukee region is not known for its extremely warm weather, boasting only 1.2 days per year over 95 F on average during the past 30 years. If we stay on our current emission pathway, this will change: The metro region will likely see 2 to 7 extremely hot days on average over the next 5 to 25 years, 4 to 17 such days likely by mid-century, and 11 to 59 days -- nearly two months -- over 95 F likely by the end of the century.

In our analysis, Detroit's climate risks are primarily heat-related: The metro region, which saw only 1.3 days on average over 95 F over the past 30 years, will see a likely increase in these days of 3 to 7 over the next 5 to 25 years, 5 to 16 likely by mid-century, and 15 to 67 extremely hot days per year likely by end of century.

A long read, to be sure, but the public needs to see the original claims firsthand to understand the magnitude of the problem in restoring sanity to climate science.

To recap, we have predictions that the number of days above 95° F each year in St. Louis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton, Chicago, Des Moines, Cleveland/Toledo, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Madison/Milwaukee, and Detroit are going to skyrocket over the next few years and keep exploding for the remainder of the 21st century due to climate change.

It's not even clear where the "past 30 years" data came from.  For example, the Risky Business report claims that "over the past 30 years, St. Louis has experienced only about 8 days over 95 F each year on average."  The NOAA National Weather Service database says there have been, on average, 12 days -- not 8 – over 95° F each year for the St. Louis area.  That is 50 percent higher.  Similar problems exist for other cities.

But the real problem with these predictions, and the corresponding alarmist rhetoric, is that they fail to fully discuss the historic record and trends for hot days in each metropolitan region.

Not a single one of these areas has a significant increasing trend in the number of days over 95° F each year either since 1895, or over the past 30 years.  Not one.  In fact, most of the correlations over the past 30 years have been toward fewer extreme heat days, not more.  How is that consistent with anthropogenic climate change hysteria?

Furthermore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Columbus all very nearly have significant trends during the last 120 years toward fewer extreme heat days.  The only significant trend for the number of days over 95° F each year since 1895 among all these metropolitan areas was for Dayton – and its trend is highly significant toward fewer extreme heat days.

And if conservatives want to see why much of the public is skeptical about Wall Street and Big Agriculture, look at the key players from the corporatist world involved in these types of projects.  The public is being rammed head-first between a rock (big government) and a hard place (corporatism – another form of big government), with few political options outside this.