Hindsight is 20-20 but these election predictions by political pros were awful

Politico has an interesting article, looking back at some of the worst mid term predictions made by political pros who should have known better,

Here are a few:

Senator Chuck Schumer:

“Well, I think we will hold the Senate. You know, I know all the pundits are saying Republicans will take the Senate. Democrats are going to prove the pundits wrong on Election Day when we keep the Senate, three reasons. First and foremost, economic issues predominate. Ebola's in the news, ISIS is in the news, but the average voter, every poll shows far and away, cares most about economic issues. They tend to be for Democrats when economic issues like minimum wage, like equal pay for women, like not sending jobs overseas predominate. Second, we have a much better ground game. You can add two to three points at a minimum…for each of those races.

Former Governor Bill Richardson:

“The Hispanic vote—everyone’s talking about what they’re going to do. I think that Sen.Mark Udall will pull through because of the Hispanic vote. In Illinois, that’s a growing Hispanic population. I think Gov. Quinn is gonna win that one. Georgia, nine percent of the vote there is now Hispanic. I think that’s going to help Sam Nunn’s daughter…

Barack Obama

“We’re gonna make one last push in these last several weeks. We’ve got a lot of just nail-biter races…If we do what we’re supposed to do, then I’m actually confident that we can get it done.”

Rep. Steny Hoyer:

“Point[ing] to a fundraising advantage for Democrats, lower poll numbers for congressional Republicans, divisions inside the GOP ranks, and a good recruiting class of Democratic challengers, [Hoyer] said ‘all of those combined in my view give me great optimism that we're going to win back the House.’” 

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz

“I think we’re going to hold the Senate and the reason that we’re going to hold the Senate…is because we have a ground game that, I know [RNC Chairman] Reince [Priebus] would take ours over theirs any day of the week. …Rick Scott is going to go down to defeat on Tuesday.”

Some of that is pre-election spin. But then you get off the wall predictions like this one from John Fund on the New Mexico Senate race:

“‘Landslide reelection races for governor produce low turnout,’ Harrison Schmitt, a former Republic senator from New Mexico, once told me. That (plus Obama’s 38 percent approval rating) gives Udall’s opponent, businessman Allen Weh, a chance to pull an upset — especially if he pulls money out of his own wallet for last-minute ads.”

Um...Weh lost by 11 points and complained bitterly before the election that the RNC had abandoned him.

I suppose full disclosure means I have to admit that I was way off in my predictions as well. I'm too embarrassed to tell you what that prediction was, but I'll link to it. so that you can see how off I was.(The predictions come in the last few minutes of the show).

Politico has an interesting article, looking back at some of the worst mid term predictions made by political pros who should have known better,

Here are a few:

Senator Chuck Schumer:

“Well, I think we will hold the Senate. You know, I know all the pundits are saying Republicans will take the Senate. Democrats are going to prove the pundits wrong on Election Day when we keep the Senate, three reasons. First and foremost, economic issues predominate. Ebola's in the news, ISIS is in the news, but the average voter, every poll shows far and away, cares most about economic issues. They tend to be for Democrats when economic issues like minimum wage, like equal pay for women, like not sending jobs overseas predominate. Second, we have a much better ground game. You can add two to three points at a minimum…for each of those races.

Former Governor Bill Richardson:

“The Hispanic vote—everyone’s talking about what they’re going to do. I think that Sen.Mark Udall will pull through because of the Hispanic vote. In Illinois, that’s a growing Hispanic population. I think Gov. Quinn is gonna win that one. Georgia, nine percent of the vote there is now Hispanic. I think that’s going to help Sam Nunn’s daughter…

Barack Obama

“We’re gonna make one last push in these last several weeks. We’ve got a lot of just nail-biter races…If we do what we’re supposed to do, then I’m actually confident that we can get it done.”

Rep. Steny Hoyer:

“Point[ing] to a fundraising advantage for Democrats, lower poll numbers for congressional Republicans, divisions inside the GOP ranks, and a good recruiting class of Democratic challengers, [Hoyer] said ‘all of those combined in my view give me great optimism that we're going to win back the House.’” 

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz

“I think we’re going to hold the Senate and the reason that we’re going to hold the Senate…is because we have a ground game that, I know [RNC Chairman] Reince [Priebus] would take ours over theirs any day of the week. …Rick Scott is going to go down to defeat on Tuesday.”

Some of that is pre-election spin. But then you get off the wall predictions like this one from John Fund on the New Mexico Senate race:

“‘Landslide reelection races for governor produce low turnout,’ Harrison Schmitt, a former Republic senator from New Mexico, once told me. That (plus Obama’s 38 percent approval rating) gives Udall’s opponent, businessman Allen Weh, a chance to pull an upset — especially if he pulls money out of his own wallet for last-minute ads.”

Um...Weh lost by 11 points and complained bitterly before the election that the RNC had abandoned him.

I suppose full disclosure means I have to admit that I was way off in my predictions as well. I'm too embarrassed to tell you what that prediction was, but I'll link to it. so that you can see how off I was.(The predictions come in the last few minutes of the show).