Encouraging signs for GOP in early voting

After this election, Democrats may rethink their strategy about early voting. Via Jim Geraght's Morning Jolt newsletter, we find that early voting totals in Nevada, Iowa, Louisiana, Colorado, and Florida all favor the GOP.

In Nevada:

The early-vote figures in Nevada look phenomenally good for Republicans and phenomenally bad for Democrats. While Republicans may hope it’s an early indicator of a wide-ranging national wave in favor of the GOP, there are some factors there that are unique to Nevada.

For starters, this year Nevada doesn’t have a big statewide race with the high stakes and drama of 2010’s Harry Reid–Sharron Angle showdown. And the Democrats effectively conceded the governor’s race against Republican Brian Sandoval, as little-known Bob Goodman, a former Nevada state economic developer, will be the token opposition in this race.

But Jon Ralston, the foremost journalist covering Nevada politics, thinks this is something bigger that merely a state Democratic party feeling the blahs.

“Yes, the Democrats conceded the governor’s race,” Ralston said. “Yes, they always knew it was a tough year with no [big race at the] top of the ticket. But I don’t think anyone expected how tilted it has been so far. The GOP is 10 points over registration; Democrats barely holding theirs. If that keeps up, it will be a disaster for the Democrats on Nov. 4.”

Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, and Iowa also looking good:

The Colorado secretary of state announced today that 332,050 Coloradans have cast ballots already, and out of that total, 145,824 are registered Republicans, and 105,401 are registered Democrats. That translates to a 43.9 percent to 31.7 percent advantage for the GOP.

In 2012, as Barack Obama was winning the state 51 percent to 46 percent, Republicans led the 1.7 million mail ballots cast in 2012 by 37 percent to 35 percent. So Republicans should be expected to lead, but a 12-point lead is better news than a 2-point lead.

In Florida, the news is also good for Republicans, but the figures could change quickly: 559,133 registered Republicans have voted early or absentee, 421,425 registered Democrats, and 198,423 independent or other. That translates to a 47 percent to 36 percent advantage.

In Iowa, the GOP and Democrats are nearly tied in the number of returned absentee ballots — a mere 170-vote difference in favor of registered Democrats, with 238,147 ballots returned.

If Democrats want good cheer, they can point to Louisiana, where 20,760 of the first 38,620 ballots were cast by registered Democrats, and only 12,883 by Republicans. But this partially reflects the heavy partisan divide in the state’s registration; Louisiana has an electorate consisting of 47.1 percent registered Democrats and 27.5 percent registered Republicans, while having a GOP governor, one GOP U.S. senator and one Democratic one, and five Republican members out of six in the state’s congressional delegation.

Democrats believe they can maximize their turnout if they have 30 days to get people to the polls rather than one day. But Republicans have not been idle in trying to get their people out early, and their efforts appear to be paying off - at least as a counterweight to the Democrat's efforts.

How many of the people voting early would have voted on election day anyway? Almost certainly, a large majority. Turnout has not gone up in recent elections as a result of early voting, which would tend to validate the theory that only a few of the voters participating in early voting efforts are "new voters" and probably won't swing the election either way.

 

After this election, Democrats may rethink their strategy about early voting. Via Jim Geraght's Morning Jolt newsletter, we find that early voting totals in Nevada, Iowa, Louisiana, Colorado, and Florida all favor the GOP.

In Nevada:

The early-vote figures in Nevada look phenomenally good for Republicans and phenomenally bad for Democrats. While Republicans may hope it’s an early indicator of a wide-ranging national wave in favor of the GOP, there are some factors there that are unique to Nevada.

For starters, this year Nevada doesn’t have a big statewide race with the high stakes and drama of 2010’s Harry Reid–Sharron Angle showdown. And the Democrats effectively conceded the governor’s race against Republican Brian Sandoval, as little-known Bob Goodman, a former Nevada state economic developer, will be the token opposition in this race.

But Jon Ralston, the foremost journalist covering Nevada politics, thinks this is something bigger that merely a state Democratic party feeling the blahs.

“Yes, the Democrats conceded the governor’s race,” Ralston said. “Yes, they always knew it was a tough year with no [big race at the] top of the ticket. But I don’t think anyone expected how tilted it has been so far. The GOP is 10 points over registration; Democrats barely holding theirs. If that keeps up, it will be a disaster for the Democrats on Nov. 4.”

Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, and Iowa also looking good:

The Colorado secretary of state announced today that 332,050 Coloradans have cast ballots already, and out of that total, 145,824 are registered Republicans, and 105,401 are registered Democrats. That translates to a 43.9 percent to 31.7 percent advantage for the GOP.

In 2012, as Barack Obama was winning the state 51 percent to 46 percent, Republicans led the 1.7 million mail ballots cast in 2012 by 37 percent to 35 percent. So Republicans should be expected to lead, but a 12-point lead is better news than a 2-point lead.

In Florida, the news is also good for Republicans, but the figures could change quickly: 559,133 registered Republicans have voted early or absentee, 421,425 registered Democrats, and 198,423 independent or other. That translates to a 47 percent to 36 percent advantage.

In Iowa, the GOP and Democrats are nearly tied in the number of returned absentee ballots — a mere 170-vote difference in favor of registered Democrats, with 238,147 ballots returned.

If Democrats want good cheer, they can point to Louisiana, where 20,760 of the first 38,620 ballots were cast by registered Democrats, and only 12,883 by Republicans. But this partially reflects the heavy partisan divide in the state’s registration; Louisiana has an electorate consisting of 47.1 percent registered Democrats and 27.5 percent registered Republicans, while having a GOP governor, one GOP U.S. senator and one Democratic one, and five Republican members out of six in the state’s congressional delegation.

Democrats believe they can maximize their turnout if they have 30 days to get people to the polls rather than one day. But Republicans have not been idle in trying to get their people out early, and their efforts appear to be paying off - at least as a counterweight to the Democrat's efforts.

How many of the people voting early would have voted on election day anyway? Almost certainly, a large majority. Turnout has not gone up in recent elections as a result of early voting, which would tend to validate the theory that only a few of the voters participating in early voting efforts are "new voters" and probably won't swing the election either way.