A pick up of 6 looks very likely for the GOP
Some of us are "veterans" of 2010 and 2012 expectations. Remember how the GOP was supposed to pick up the Senate both times? Don't remind me. It still hurts to see what we did to ourselves in Delaware,Missouri & Indiana. Talk about "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory"!
So forgive me if I make 2014 predictions cautiously: I will predict that the GOP will get to 6, and it could be more if there is a wave election.
My friend Barry Casselman, The Prairie Editor, looked at the 2014 election and concluded this a few weeks ago:
"The signs therefore continue to point to significant conservative gains in 2014, and the best thing going for the Republicans seems to be an unwitting Democratic president.
We all know the cliche about how U.S. politics can change course in a short time, even in four months, so there is no valid reason for any Republican overconfidence at this point. But time IS running out for the national Democrats and many of their candidates in the 2014 cycle."
Let me go further and say that the GOP will pick up West Virginia, Montana & South Dakota. It looks very good in Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska, There are also strong possibilities in Iowa, North Carolina and even Colorado.
I agree with Chris Cilliza that the winds are blowing the GOP's way:
"Add it all up, and Republicans have enough races within the margin of errorto think that even the slightest national breeze blowing in their favor — and that wind looks likely to be there — will be enough to push them over the top in a few of these very close contests."
But let me say it again: I was feeling good in the summer of 2010 and 2012. I do think that we have a lot better candidates this time around!