A hopeful sign for the GOP in Maine

One result yesterday that I think is significant and few are noticing: Maine's Second District congressman, Mike Michaud, is running for governor against the incumbent Paul LePage, the current very conservative Republican governor, elected because he ran against two lefties who split the vote in 2010 (one as an independent.

Le Page is one of 18  children from a French Canadian family in Lewiston, a truly incredible hardscrabble American success story. I love the guy -- he is the most honest politician in America.  Always says what he thinks, however intemperate, or un-PC.  He has made almost no compromises to be fashionable or to work and play well with others.

He could win again, since the third party candidate who split the vote in 2010 is running again, Eliot Cutler.  

The state of Maine is about 55-45 Democratic at this point, so LePage only wins in a three way race. The Second District is more conservative than the First (Portland area) District, but has become reliably Democratic the last few cycles.  In the party primaries yesterday for the open seat, GOP turnout for theirs was a good bit higher (20%) than for the Democratic primary, a possible signal the seat could flip in November.  This is the kind of seat that moves in a wave election, but remains with majority party in the district in most cycles.

One result yesterday that I think is significant and few are noticing: Maine's Second District congressman, Mike Michaud, is running for governor against the incumbent Paul LePage, the current very conservative Republican governor, elected because he ran against two lefties who split the vote in 2010 (one as an independent.

Le Page is one of 18  children from a French Canadian family in Lewiston, a truly incredible hardscrabble American success story. I love the guy -- he is the most honest politician in America.  Always says what he thinks, however intemperate, or un-PC.  He has made almost no compromises to be fashionable or to work and play well with others.

He could win again, since the third party candidate who split the vote in 2010 is running again, Eliot Cutler.  

The state of Maine is about 55-45 Democratic at this point, so LePage only wins in a three way race. The Second District is more conservative than the First (Portland area) District, but has become reliably Democratic the last few cycles.  In the party primaries yesterday for the open seat, GOP turnout for theirs was a good bit higher (20%) than for the Democratic primary, a possible signal the seat could flip in November.  This is the kind of seat that moves in a wave election, but remains with majority party in the district in most cycles.