Spring Precipitation in the American Midwest: Another NCA Fail

Well, now that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is ordering 40-caliber submachine guns with 30-round magazines along with ballistic body armor, perhaps we need to keep looking at the agriculture section of the clearly flawed National Climate Assessment, whose lead authors include representatives of the now-militarized USDA itself.

In the NCA agriculture section, the authors show this picture of some runoff and soil erosion and state the following:

Water and soil that are lost from the field are no longer available to support crop growth. The increasing intensity of storms and the shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest may lead to more scenes similar to this one.

Wait a minute.  The "shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest"?  Fact-check time.

There are 12 states in the Midwest, and according to the American Meteorological Society's glossary of meteorology, "spring is customarily taken to include the months of March, April, and May in the Northern Hemisphere."

The following plot shows the area-weighted spring precipitation in the Midwest since 1970.

Perhaps it is just me, but I am just not seeing the clear anthropogenic climate change signature in this data.  The trend is unequivocally non-significant.  Nor are there any significant trends in the individual states over this timeframe.  And recall that this timeframe is the period over which the NCA keeps reminding us that we should really be seeing the strongest anthropogenic forcing effects.

As far as I can tell, there is no evidence of a "shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest" that would "lead to more scenes similar to [the] one [shown above]."  Lots of doom and gloom in the NCA, but notably short on rigorous analyses proving the apocalyptic claims.

Well, now that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is ordering 40-caliber submachine guns with 30-round magazines along with ballistic body armor, perhaps we need to keep looking at the agriculture section of the clearly flawed National Climate Assessment, whose lead authors include representatives of the now-militarized USDA itself.

In the NCA agriculture section, the authors show this picture of some runoff and soil erosion and state the following:

Water and soil that are lost from the field are no longer available to support crop growth. The increasing intensity of storms and the shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest may lead to more scenes similar to this one.

Wait a minute.  The "shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest"?  Fact-check time.

There are 12 states in the Midwest, and according to the American Meteorological Society's glossary of meteorology, "spring is customarily taken to include the months of March, April, and May in the Northern Hemisphere."

The following plot shows the area-weighted spring precipitation in the Midwest since 1970.

Perhaps it is just me, but I am just not seeing the clear anthropogenic climate change signature in this data.  The trend is unequivocally non-significant.  Nor are there any significant trends in the individual states over this timeframe.  And recall that this timeframe is the period over which the NCA keeps reminding us that we should really be seeing the strongest anthropogenic forcing effects.

As far as I can tell, there is no evidence of a "shifting of rainfall patterns toward more spring precipitation in the Midwest" that would "lead to more scenes similar to [the] one [shown above]."  Lots of doom and gloom in the NCA, but notably short on rigorous analyses proving the apocalyptic claims.

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