Fantasizing over Hot Days in the Northeast

In the National Climate Assessment's section on climate change impacts for the U.S. Northeast region, the following claims are made:

Much of the southern portion of the region, including the majority of Maryland and Delaware, and southwestern West Virginia and New Jersey, are projected by mid-century to experience more than 60 additional days per year above 90ºF compared to the end of last century under continued increases in emissions. This will affect the region's vulnerable populations, infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Some areas of northern New England, near the Canadian border, are projected to shift from having less than five to more than 15 days per year over 90ºF by the 2050s.

Here are the actual trends in the number of days per year above 90ºF for this region since 1980, or since, the NCA claims, the effects of anthropogenic climate change have become most clear and the start of the most recent general warming trend across the contiguous United States.


Click for enlarged image.

There is not a single significant trend in the number of days over 90ºF in this region of the American northeast since 1980.  Not one.

And yet the NCA predicts that "much of the southern portion of the region, including the majority of Maryland and Delaware, and southwestern West Virginia and New Jersey, are projected by mid-century to experience more than 60 additional days per year above 90ºF compared to the end of last century under continued increases in emissions" and that "some areas of northern New England, near the Canadian border, are projected to shift from having less than five to more than 15 days per year over 90ºF by the 2050s."

There has been absolutely no significant trend in the number of hot days for this area over the past 35 years, yet the next 35 years will somehow bring massive increases (up to 60 additional days per year, or several-fold more than current levels)?  For some reason I am extremely skeptical of these predictions.

In the National Climate Assessment's section on climate change impacts for the U.S. Northeast region, the following claims are made:

Much of the southern portion of the region, including the majority of Maryland and Delaware, and southwestern West Virginia and New Jersey, are projected by mid-century to experience more than 60 additional days per year above 90ºF compared to the end of last century under continued increases in emissions. This will affect the region's vulnerable populations, infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Some areas of northern New England, near the Canadian border, are projected to shift from having less than five to more than 15 days per year over 90ºF by the 2050s.

Here are the actual trends in the number of days per year above 90ºF for this region since 1980, or since, the NCA claims, the effects of anthropogenic climate change have become most clear and the start of the most recent general warming trend across the contiguous United States.


Click for enlarged image.

There is not a single significant trend in the number of days over 90ºF in this region of the American northeast since 1980.  Not one.

And yet the NCA predicts that "much of the southern portion of the region, including the majority of Maryland and Delaware, and southwestern West Virginia and New Jersey, are projected by mid-century to experience more than 60 additional days per year above 90ºF compared to the end of last century under continued increases in emissions" and that "some areas of northern New England, near the Canadian border, are projected to shift from having less than five to more than 15 days per year over 90ºF by the 2050s."

There has been absolutely no significant trend in the number of hot days for this area over the past 35 years, yet the next 35 years will somehow bring massive increases (up to 60 additional days per year, or several-fold more than current levels)?  For some reason I am extremely skeptical of these predictions.

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