The GOP is looking good but the election is still 9 months away
The latest Obamacare mandate delay is further evidence that the law is an "unsustainable political burden" on Democrats in 2014.
This is good news for the GOP. At the same time, we are not there yet. There are still 9 months of tough campaigning ahead. Be careful about underestimating the Democrats' machine to get voters out the vote. Or, their ability to place the race over and often.
We begin with 4 obvious pick ups: Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.
The next group is very likely but it will require a strong GOP candidate: Louisiana, North Carolina and Alaska. The 3 Democrat incumbents will play "the race card," especially in Louisiana and North Carolina. Get ready for a vicious campaign.
That's 7. It takes a net pick up of 6!
The next group is Michigan and Iowa, a couple that could go GOP because there are Democrats retiring. There is a strong female candidate in Michigan but Iowa is still up in the air.
That would make it 9, a very possible outcome if we have a "wave election" as we saw in 2006 & 2008.
The GOP has two potential problems that could blow any change of a Senate takeover, i.e. Kentucky and Georgia. Let's hope that the primary does not produce a GOP candidate that can not win a general election, as we saw in 2012 in Missouri and Indiana.
2014 will be different than 2012, as my friend Barry Cassekman wrote:
"What is different from 2012, however, is that there is no presidential contest, and that intraparty challenges to incumbent GOP senators seem to lacking voter traction so far. Since the number of Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 will greatly outnumber Democrats ( a reversal of the past three cycles), any hope of GOP control of the senate would be lost for many years if the Republicans do not succeed this year.
The "Tea Party" wing of the conservative party, however, remains potent in several states, and until the GOP nominees are finally chosen later in the year, the outcomes of several races are in some doubt.
A GOP majority in the US Senate is critical in the last 2 years of the Obama administration. It is the only way that we will get to the bottom of Benghazi and the IRS scandals. Also, it is the only way to put a check on ObamaCare.
Wanted: Candidates who can win general elections NOT just primaries!