The respected pollster, pundit, and prognosticator kicks off the year with his take on GOP chances for the mid term. Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we'll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments-the "game changers" and the "tipping points." But we all know there aren't a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I'd argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms. Why? 1. The president. His job approval numbers are perhaps the best indicator of the public's overall political orientation at any given time, a kind of summary statistic that takes everything at the national level into account. In a large majority of cases, the president's party does poorly in midterms, especially the second midterm of a two-term administration. [...] 2. The...(Read Full Post)