How big will Obama lose on Syria resolution in the House?

As of now, the whip count according to WaPo is 103 House members publicly opposed to military action with another 102 leaning that way. Only 24 members have expressed support for the resolution. Fifty four Democrats have either come out in opposition to the resolution or are leaning in that direction.

This has the makings of an old fashioned hide beating.

The president has cancelled a fundraising trip to Hollywood next week in order to stay in DC and lobby the House. But unless there is an epic turnaround, Obama is likely to see the House give an historic rejection of his call for war against Syria.

Politico:

If the House voted today on a resolution to attack Syria, President Barack Obama would lose -- and lose big.

That's the private assessment of House Republican and Democratic lawmakers and aides who are closely involved in the process.

If the Senate passes a use-of-force resolution next week -- which is no sure thing -- the current dynamics suggest that the House would defeat it. That would represent a dramatic failure for Obama, and once again prove that his sway over Congress is extraordinarily limited. The loss would have serious reverberations throughout the next three months, when Obama faces off against Congress in a series of high-stakes fiscal battles.

 

Several Republican leadership aides, who are counting votes but not encouraging a position, say that there are roughly one to two dozen "yes" votes in favor of military action at this time. The stunningly low number is expected to grow a bit.

But senior aides say they expect, at most, between 50 and 60 Republicans to vote with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who support the president's plan to bomb Syria to stop Bashar Assad from using chemical weapons on his people. That would amount to less than one-third of the House Republican Conference.

That would mean the vast majority of the 200 House Democrats will need to vote with Obama for the resolution to pass. But Democrats privately say that Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) can only round up between 115 and 130 "yes" votes.

 

High-level congressional sources believe there is some time -- but not much -- for Obama, Boehner and Pelosi to turn things around. But any vote to authorize an attack on Syria will be extraordinarily close, according to people in both parties with direct knowledge of the political dynamics in the House Republican Conference and Democratic Caucus.

Boehner and Cantor back the president's plan for "limited, proportional" strikes in Syria. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is not convinced it's the right decision. McCarthy's calculus seems to be more in line with many House Republicans -- he has spoken to many of his allies in the last week, and the support for a U.S. strike on Syria is incredibly low, sources familiar with those discussions says say.

There is a question of whether Obama would attack even if the House rejected the resolution. After making such a huge show of going to Congress in the first place, if Obama were to attack anyway, there would be serious calls for his impeachment - joined, perhaps, by some ultra liberal Democrats.

Besides, Obama will probably be grateful he doesn't have to act and pull back - or take his case to the UN, which will also prove to be a futile gesture.

As I said yesterday on PJM's Tatler, the coming historic rejection of Obama has been 4 years in the making:
If Obama fails, it will have been a disaster 4 years in the making. His arrogance, his inability to work effectively and consult with Congress, his sneering condescension toward his opponents, and a glaring lack of leadership have all combined to set him up for a bi-partisan fall on Syria.

Don't bank it quite yet. But the fat lady is warming up in the wings and the president is running out of time and options to turn the situation around.


As of now, the whip count according to WaPo is 103 House members publicly opposed to military action with another 102 leaning that way. Only 24 members have expressed support for the resolution. Fifty four Democrats have either come out in opposition to the resolution or are leaning in that direction.

This has the makings of an old fashioned hide beating.

The president has cancelled a fundraising trip to Hollywood next week in order to stay in DC and lobby the House. But unless there is an epic turnaround, Obama is likely to see the House give an historic rejection of his call for war against Syria.

Politico:

If the House voted today on a resolution to attack Syria, President Barack Obama would lose -- and lose big.

That's the private assessment of House Republican and Democratic lawmakers and aides who are closely involved in the process.

If the Senate passes a use-of-force resolution next week -- which is no sure thing -- the current dynamics suggest that the House would defeat it. That would represent a dramatic failure for Obama, and once again prove that his sway over Congress is extraordinarily limited. The loss would have serious reverberations throughout the next three months, when Obama faces off against Congress in a series of high-stakes fiscal battles.

 

Several Republican leadership aides, who are counting votes but not encouraging a position, say that there are roughly one to two dozen "yes" votes in favor of military action at this time. The stunningly low number is expected to grow a bit.

But senior aides say they expect, at most, between 50 and 60 Republicans to vote with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who support the president's plan to bomb Syria to stop Bashar Assad from using chemical weapons on his people. That would amount to less than one-third of the House Republican Conference.

That would mean the vast majority of the 200 House Democrats will need to vote with Obama for the resolution to pass. But Democrats privately say that Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) can only round up between 115 and 130 "yes" votes.

 

High-level congressional sources believe there is some time -- but not much -- for Obama, Boehner and Pelosi to turn things around. But any vote to authorize an attack on Syria will be extraordinarily close, according to people in both parties with direct knowledge of the political dynamics in the House Republican Conference and Democratic Caucus.

Boehner and Cantor back the president's plan for "limited, proportional" strikes in Syria. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is not convinced it's the right decision. McCarthy's calculus seems to be more in line with many House Republicans -- he has spoken to many of his allies in the last week, and the support for a U.S. strike on Syria is incredibly low, sources familiar with those discussions says say.

There is a question of whether Obama would attack even if the House rejected the resolution. After making such a huge show of going to Congress in the first place, if Obama were to attack anyway, there would be serious calls for his impeachment - joined, perhaps, by some ultra liberal Democrats.

Besides, Obama will probably be grateful he doesn't have to act and pull back - or take his case to the UN, which will also prove to be a futile gesture.

As I said yesterday on PJM's Tatler, the coming historic rejection of Obama has been 4 years in the making:
If Obama fails, it will have been a disaster 4 years in the making. His arrogance, his inability to work effectively and consult with Congress, his sneering condescension toward his opponents, and a glaring lack of leadership have all combined to set him up for a bi-partisan fall on Syria.

Don't bank it quite yet. But the fat lady is warming up in the wings and the president is running out of time and options to turn the situation around.


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