The GOP is in such bad shape that it has a very good chance of winning the Senate in 2014
Forgive me if I'm a bit confused.
The NY Times/MSNBC crowd keeps telling us that the GOP is doomed. Yes, it's true that the GOP needs to do a better job of winning over Hispanics and blacks. However, it is silly to say that the GOP is dead in the water.
In fact, I would argue that the GOP is headed for a great 2014 at the federal and state levels. Ed Rogers reminds us of the GOP's chances in 2014:
"Republicans currently hold 46 seats in the Senate. Republicans should have a majority in the Senate today, and the 2014 midterms should be about beefing up that majority. Even Democrats know their majority in the Senate is undeserved. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, acknowledged as much to the Wall Street Journal when he said that "Republicans have not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Bennet is right, but it looks as if our primaries will produce more electable candidates next year. The Senate is in play despite the GOP's self-inflicted wounds in the last two cycles.
There are no serious discussions or predictions that the Republican House majority is in peril, or that Republicans could lose more than a few of their 30 governorships. I don't want to suggest that Republicans don't have any problems, but when it comes to what matters, the party isn't in the dire straits that some would have us believe."
Yes, the GOP could blow it, as it did in Missouri, Indiana, Delaware and even Nevada where Harry Reid was very beatable.
However, there are now 4 seats that will very likely turnover: Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota. There are very strong GOP candidates in these four states, according to Barry Casselman, The Prairie Editor.
Those 4 would make it 49, or only 2 away from having control of the US Senate.
There are also vulnerable Democrat seats in Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska and a very good chance in Nebraska.
Iowa and Michigan have two Democratic incumbents retiring. Open seats always offer a good chance, especially if there is a "wave election" in 2014.
In politics, as in sports, you don't win until you win. However, I really like the GOP's chances. It's not crazy to say that the GOP should pick up 4-6 seats and a Senate majority!
We can conclude by saying this:
1) Get strong candidates in Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska and Nebraska and it will be 8 rather than 4 pick ups;
2) The GOP needs special "candidate training classes" on how to talk about abortion. The media will force candidates to talk about abortion and we need to be ready with answers that make sense;
3) The Obama-Holder team will go "race card 24/7" in 2014. Get ready for a very dirty campaign focusing on everything but issues that matter to people; and,
4) The GOP is not dead when you hear that "74%" say that Americans are too dependent on the government. Does that sound like a Great Society electorate to you?
The opportunity is there in 2014 and 2016. Now, let's nominate GOP candidates who can answer abortion questions and defend conservative values no matter how many times Paul Krugman tells them that they are against reality.