Why it may be 'Back to the Drawing Board' for pollsters after this election

If Mitt Romney wins the election tomorrow (or in the next couple of weeks), it is likely that pollsters will be in for a period of soul searching not seen since they predicted Dewey over Truman. While they may be able to claim that some of the ones they didn't get were in the margin of error, the fact is, their polls have consistently given Obama a lead in states that it is very possible Mitt Romney might win tomorrow. The popular notion of bias against the GOP or in favor of Democrats might fit some pollsters (PPP), but the problem pollsters will probably have to deal with has more to do with statistical analysis than partisanship. Where did they go wrong - if they went wrong at all? First, Jay Cost on Romney's thrust into Pennsylvania in the campaign's waning days and the disconnect of the polls: The Romney campaign seems to have committed to a late push into Pennsylvania, to the derision of Team Obama. The latter sees this as a desperation ploy by a foundering campaign, similar...(Read Full Post)