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November 5, 2012
Skewed Polling Meets Energized Conservatives
Polling firms continue to oversample Democrats by preposterous margins to deliver polls reflecting President Obama ahead of Governor Romney in battleground states. Therefore, when his complicit media lapdogs gleefully report the top-line result, it can be quite demoralizing to voters wanting a better path for America.
But when you dig into the poll numbers themselves, the president really is in dire straits -- even within his own party. Therefore, the polling institutions wanting a positive Obama-result have no choice but to find a few more Democrats willing to vote for the guy. So if they can prevent just a handful of Romney voters from turning out on Election Day, maybe Obama's would-be losses in these various states will be less embarrassing.
Take the latest poll coming out of Iowa, for example. It was conducted by the Des Moines Register and now sits atop the other Iowa polls over at Real Clear Politics. It claims Obama is now leading Romney by 47-42. This means that 11 percent are undecided. If you follow the logic of Dick Morris -- that undecided voters always vote against the embattled incumbent -- the actual result is 53-47 for Romney thereby giving the Governor the state's electoral votes.
But it doesn't stop there. In fact, if you read the findings within the poll, coupled with the average turnout of Iowa voters from 2000, 2004, and 2008 of 1,426,021 voters, you come to numbers which are very close to the 53-47.
The poll tells us many interesting details when you read down a bit:
1.) Obama is allegedly ahead of Romney by 22 points among early voters.
2.) Romney is ahead of Obama by eight points with voters who will be voting Tuesday.
3.) Romney is ahead of Obama among independents by four points.
To begin with, according to the Associated Press, 614,000 early ballots were sent out in Iowa. Of those, 43% were Democrats and 32% were Republicans. This means that 25% of the early ballots were either independents or third party. That's only an 11-point advantage for Democrats and considering the Des Moines Register poll reveals that Romney is ahead four points with independents, its finding of Obama being ahead by 22 points among early voters would suggest that they missed quite a few Republican and Independent early voters in their survey.
Second, if you use the average number of Iowa voters who voted for the Democrat and Republican in the last three national elections of 1,426,021 and subtract out the early voters, this means that 812,021 votes would be cast this Tuesday. If Romney is ahead by the eight points the poll suggests he is, this means that he should receive about 470,972 of those votes.
Admittedly, Obama would be ahead according to early votes. But strictly going by party ballots sent out coupled with the poll's findings of Romney ahead of Obama with independents by four points, of the 614,000, Obama would receive 320,815 and Romney would get 259,415.
This is a final total of 730,387 votes for Mitt Romney and a total of 661,864 for Barack Obama -- or 54% for Mitt Romney and 46% for President Obama.
So why did the Des Moines Register poll come out with Obama ahead of Romney by five points? The answer is simple. They, like practically every other media poll, oversample Democrats by highly unlikely margins. But unlike the others, they don't even give us the breakdown of voter-party affiliation.
As Bill Clinton was thrilled to say at the DNC this year; "it's arithmetic!" What he didn't mention is that some of us actually know how to use it.
It's actually quite simple to unskew any of these polls. But the media doesn't take into account the wisdom of the American people.
What's troubling is the possibility of there being just enough Americans finding these polls disheartening. If the mainstream media can keep enough grassroots Americans from turning out to vote by leading them to believe it's a shoe-in for Obama, they might succeed.
They know this. It's a strong and unfair tool the liberals have always had. But is it strong enough to drown out the energy of millions upon millions of Americans who have waited for weeks, months, and years to fire this president and to be rid of his failed policies?
Though the true arithmetic is on our side, we should take nothing for granted. Call friends and family in battleground states and tell them not to be discouraged by this last-minute skewed polling. Get on to Twitter, Facebook, and send out e-mails to everyone you know.
We'll have plenty of time to deal with the complicit media after we finally fire Barack Obama and his failed policies.
Steve Flesher is a Contributing Editor at Conservatives4Palin
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