A poll out from the Marquette Law School gives President Obama a healthy lead over Mitt Romney:
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds President Barack Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin. Five percent remain undecided or declined to state a preference, while 1 percent said that they would vote for a third party. Two weeks ago, before the second and third presidential debates, the poll found Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 48 percent.
Turnout could play a big role in the election, according to Poll Director Charles Franklin. "Among all likely voters Obama leads by 8 points, but among those who both are likely to vote and also follow politics most closely, the margin is just two points, 48-46 percent. It works to Obama's advantage if the less interested voters turn out, while it improves Romney's chances if they stay home. This shows how get out the vote efforts of both parties can affect the results."
Both political parties have been contacting voters. Seventy-seven percent of likely voters said they had been contacted by phone, in person or by mail in the past week. Of those, 69 percent said they had been contacted by both parties, 10 percent only by Democrats and 18 percent only by Republicans.
In talking with several GOP operatives in Wisconsin, I can report that the state has never seen anything like the Republican GOTV operation. Basically, the party has grafted a national GOP effort on the hugely successful Governor Walker GOTV operation that swept him to a much larger than expected recall victory last summer.A similar result is expected by these activists on election day.
President Obama is in Green Bay today. I can guarantee you that he would not be in the state 5 days before the election if he really had an 8 point lead. In fact, the slew of good news polls for Obama in recent days, while disconcerting, are mostly from Democratic leaning pollsters - PPP and Quinnipiac. The Marist poll out today on IA - Obama +7 - oversampled early voters by nearly 12%. That's a ridiculous result that doesn't reflect the reality on the ground.
Here's a tip: Between now and the election, don't pay attention to the polls; pay attention to where the principles are campaigning. Also, watch for stories about where the ad dollars are flowing. Those two metrics will give you a good idea on the state of the race.