This article by Johnny Pods lays out some of the reasons why Romney may upset the pundit apple cart today. Chief among them - Gallup and Rasmussen have given the GOP a lead in the partisan identification number for the first time in polling history - going back to 1936: In the two best years for Republicans on this measure, 2004 and 2010, all they could come up with was an evenly divided electorate (37-37 in 2004, down to 35-35 in 2010, according to exit polls). Yet here we have Rasmussen saying Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6 points and Gallup saying the GOP outnumbers its rival by 1 point. By some calculations, using 2008 as a benchmark, if the electorate is even or as much as 2 percentage points more Democratic, Mitt Romney will win the popular vote. The closer he gets to a Republican advantage, the more likely it is he wins the Electoral College as well. Why haven't we heard more about these party-ID numbers? Pollsters are themselves skeptical of their value in...(Read Full Post)