Electoral College: Advantage Democrats

Richard Baehr
We can expect calls for abolition of the Electoral College to disappear, now that Democrats appear to have a built-in advantage.

In the last 6 presidential elections, 18 states have voted Democratic each time. They have 242 electoral college votes. Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico have voted Democratic 5 times each. Once each, the GOP won in these states, in each case by 1% or  less of the popular vote.  So points out Paul Steinhauser on CNN.

These three states have 15 Electoral College votes. Nevada (6) seems to have become a reliable Democratic state. The two GOP wins in 2000 and 2004 were very close in the Electoral College (271-267, and 286-252).  The four Democratic wins were all at 332 or higher in the Electoral College. We are getting close to having a Democratic lock on the electoral college, unless the GOP wins all the swing states, or can pick off states like Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

States that generally vote Republican in presidential elections will become friendlier to Democrats in the future, due to Hispanic voting share growth -- Arizona, Texas, Georgia, in particular.

Romney won the white vote by a higher percentage margin (20%) than any GOP candidate since Reagan in 1984. And he still lost he popular vote by probably 3% or more (2.8% at the moment with a few million more votes from California and a few other states to count).  The GOP also lost almost every close House race (1% margin or less), accounting for 10 or more seats.  Many of these were in states that had favorable redistricting for the Democrats: Illinois, California, Arizona, Florida.

On the Presidential level, it looks bleak for the GOP, unless they can find a candidate who win the popular vote decisively, overcoming fraud, and the Democrats' built in Electoral College advantage.

We can expect calls for abolition of the Electoral College to disappear, now that Democrats appear to have a built-in advantage.

In the last 6 presidential elections, 18 states have voted Democratic each time. They have 242 electoral college votes. Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico have voted Democratic 5 times each. Once each, the GOP won in these states, in each case by 1% or  less of the popular vote.  So points out Paul Steinhauser on CNN.

These three states have 15 Electoral College votes. Nevada (6) seems to have become a reliable Democratic state. The two GOP wins in 2000 and 2004 were very close in the Electoral College (271-267, and 286-252).  The four Democratic wins were all at 332 or higher in the Electoral College. We are getting close to having a Democratic lock on the electoral college, unless the GOP wins all the swing states, or can pick off states like Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

States that generally vote Republican in presidential elections will become friendlier to Democrats in the future, due to Hispanic voting share growth -- Arizona, Texas, Georgia, in particular.

Romney won the white vote by a higher percentage margin (20%) than any GOP candidate since Reagan in 1984. And he still lost he popular vote by probably 3% or more (2.8% at the moment with a few million more votes from California and a few other states to count).  The GOP also lost almost every close House race (1% margin or less), accounting for 10 or more seats.  Many of these were in states that had favorable redistricting for the Democrats: Illinois, California, Arizona, Florida.

On the Presidential level, it looks bleak for the GOP, unless they can find a candidate who win the popular vote decisively, overcoming fraud, and the Democrats' built in Electoral College advantage.