Biased Till the End

According to the latest (and I'm assuming last) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll on the all-important state of Ohio, Mitt Romney is toast. The poll of 971 likely voters, out today on Real Clear Politics, has Obama in the lead 51% to 45%. At least they are consistent. Including this poll, the last four NBC/WSJ/Marist polls on Ohio have Obama receiving 50% or 51% of the vote and Romney getting only 43% or 45% of the Ohio vote. Of course, as one examines the internals of the poll, it is easy to see how Obama has such a lead. This latest poll gives Democrats a nine-point advantage over Republicans (38% to 29%). This exceeds the 2008 exit polling on D/R/I turnout which revealed a 39/31/30 result. So, yes, if Tuesday's turnout is like 2008, Obama will easily win Ohio. Does anyone in their right mind believe this will be the case?! In 2010 the exit polls showed a D/R/I turnout of 36/37/28. If the actual turnout is closer to this, then Romney wins easily. The 2012 Ohio turnout will probably be somewhere...(Read Full Post)