Believe Your Lyin' Eyes

Making a prediction about this election boils down to one simple question. What do you believe: your lyin' eyes or the lyin' polls? I'm going with my eyes. There are lots of factors, of course, but here's as good a place as any to start: Obama is going to venues that McCain was using in 2008 -- smaller, indoor locations. But where is Romney holding his events now? In the vast, outdoor sites that can hold overflow crowds of tens of thousands -- the ones used by Obama in 2008. Not as relevant but still interesting is that my sister, who lives in deep blue Boulder County in Colorado, says that she has seen more Romney than Obama signs, far more GOP signs that she has seen in a decade of living there. Why does that matter? Because Obama won in significant part by achieving a D+7 turnout (39% Democrats vs. 32% Republicans) -- the best Democratic turnout since Reagan realigned party ID into near-parity in 1980. With enthusiasm clearly stronger on the right than left, there's...(Read Full Post)