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October 5, 2012
Official unemployment rate at 7.8% (Updated)
The official rate dropped from 8.1% unemployment in August. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics added 86,000 more jobs in July and August as more hard data became available.
As usual with this number, the real unemployment data is hidden away inside the BLS report. We'll update this blog as deeper analysis becomes available.
Update from Thomas Lifson:
Jack Welch is tweeting what many are thinking: that "these Chicago guys" are fudging the numbers. In the short run, there is probably no way to determine if there has been corruption of the BLS data.If this is a top-down effort to manage the data, then if next month's data goes below the level when Obama took office, that would fuel a powerful media narrative that we're back ont he way up. The old "stay the course" argument.
Bruce Johnson adds:
Thin Air is on Obama's Side. So many events originate in the thin atmosphere that seems to miraculously benefit Mr. Obama.
This September employment data counters the debate performance and eviscerates much of Romney's argument.
Ta da! Magically, after the poor debate performance, we get the largest leap in home survey jobs in nearly 30 years. The employment rate drops to 7.8%.
Now the "no President has ever won reelection with unemployment over 8%" rule is out the window. Additionally, this short circuits all the small business and jobs points made by Romney on Wednesday night.
What wonderful timing.
How come Ben Bernanke didn't see this coming? Is QE 3 necessary now? Will Ben quickly withdraw the tactic now that this gigantic leap in employment has been reported and apparently occurred before QE 3 was announced and implemented?
873,000 people found work, at home. Shazzam. Voila!
Why does something of this magnitude not appear in the GDP calculations? GDP calculations are hard fact compilations. Home job surveys over the phone are what, exactly?
File this with the Nobel Peace Prize. Remarkable events surround Mr. Obama.
Rick Moran adds:
It is disappointing to see so many conservatives fall for the conspiracy line on the BLS numbers. This is just unthinking paranoia, as Megan McCardle points out:
This is an absolutely horrible jobs report. The closer you look at it, the worse it gets. One wonders if the BLS was going to cook the books, wouldn't they make an angel food cake instead of a crap sandwich?
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