Electoral College Update

I believe that Mitt Romney will win on November 6th. The alternative is too ghastly to contemplate.

I'm encouraged by the polls, as reported in Rick Moran's blog post, "Romney has lead in all 4 major tracking polls."

These polls however don't address the electoral college vote. A friend argued recently that Romney would win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college. I had a moment's panic, but I was reassured by the latest Rasmussen Electoral College Scoreboard. It's a little tighter than the popular vote numbers, but I still think my friend is wrong:

Safe + Likely + Leaning
Romney: 235
Obama: 237
Toss-Up: 66

To win the 270 votes required, Romney therefore needs 35 of the 66 toss-up votes: 

Romney Ahead

Votes

Latest Rasmussen poll

Colorado

9

R: 50;  O: 46

Nevada

6

R: 50;  O: 48

New Hampshire

4

R: 50;  O: 48

Virginia

13

R: 50;  O: 47

Wisconsin

10

R: 50;  O: 48

 

42

 

 

 

 

Romney Tied

 

 

Ohio

18

R: 48;  O: 48

Iowa

6

R: 48;  O: 48

 

24

 

Romney has a small lead in five of the above states, which total 42 electoral college votes, more than sufficient to carry him across the finish line.

Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin add up to 32 votes, so he could lose either NH or NV and still reach 270.

If Romney wins Ohio, he'll need 17 votes from the above list, for example: CO +WI, or VA+NH+NV.

This assumes that Romney will win the two leaning states of Montana and North Carolina and that predictions based on polling are accurate. Things can change between now and November 6th, but Romney has momentum, Obama's Benghazi fiasco, and the daily revelations of Obama's nasty nature on his side.

I believe that Mitt Romney will win on November 6th. The alternative is too ghastly to contemplate.

I'm encouraged by the polls, as reported in Rick Moran's blog post, "Romney has lead in all 4 major tracking polls."

These polls however don't address the electoral college vote. A friend argued recently that Romney would win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college. I had a moment's panic, but I was reassured by the latest Rasmussen Electoral College Scoreboard. It's a little tighter than the popular vote numbers, but I still think my friend is wrong:

Safe + Likely + Leaning
Romney: 235
Obama: 237
Toss-Up: 66

To win the 270 votes required, Romney therefore needs 35 of the 66 toss-up votes: 

Romney Ahead

Votes

Latest Rasmussen poll

Colorado

9

R: 50;  O: 46

Nevada

6

R: 50;  O: 48

New Hampshire

4

R: 50;  O: 48

Virginia

13

R: 50;  O: 47

Wisconsin

10

R: 50;  O: 48

 

42

 

 

 

 

Romney Tied

 

 

Ohio

18

R: 48;  O: 48

Iowa

6

R: 48;  O: 48

 

24

 

Romney has a small lead in five of the above states, which total 42 electoral college votes, more than sufficient to carry him across the finish line.

Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin add up to 32 votes, so he could lose either NH or NV and still reach 270.

If Romney wins Ohio, he'll need 17 votes from the above list, for example: CO +WI, or VA+NH+NV.

This assumes that Romney will win the two leaning states of Montana and North Carolina and that predictions based on polling are accurate. Things can change between now and November 6th, but Romney has momentum, Obama's Benghazi fiasco, and the daily revelations of Obama's nasty nature on his side.

RECENT VIDEOS