Gabi Avital, former chief scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Education (who holds a Stanford PhD), has a reputation for speaking his mind. That's why he is the former chief scientist. He is speaking out in Israel Hayom, the largest circulation paper in the country, on the topic of an Israeli first strike on Iran, thinking the unthinkable, as Herman Kahn called it. About Iranian retaliation:
First, Iran can fire no more than 200 missiles in retaliation to an Israeli attack. These missiles, the Shihab-3 and Sajil-2, carry a warhead only slightly larger than that of the familiar Scud, and are less accurate. Their destructive capability is limited to a building or two. Israel's time-tested radar systems will identify each Iranian missile's target before it hits and will fire an Arrow missile, like the Iron Dome, to intercept it, so that at least 80 percent of Iran's expensive, clumsy missiles won't even hit their targets. So how much truth is there behind the fear mongering?
Most sobering is his conclusion:
And what of the axis of evil to the north? Despite the thousands of rockets at its disposal, Hezbollah today is a shadow of its former self, while the Syrians are busy massacring each other. Israel has a proven military capability to leave Lebanon and Syria without infrastructure, power, water, bridges, command or control stations within the course of two hours, so where does this fear of an uncontrollable regional war come from? In fact, once the IDF's power shifts from deterrence to practice, perhaps the big war will be averted.
Hat tip: Karin McQuillan