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September 21, 2012
How biased are the polls?
An excellent and timely article by Katrina Trinko at NRO yesterday about oversampling of Democrats in opinion polls. The answers coming from pollsters may surprise you: It has become a familiar pattern this election cycle: A poll shows President Obama several points ahead of Mitt Romney, conservatives look at the poll's sample and discover that a significantly higher percentage of those polled are Democrats than Republicans, and, finally, the poll is dismissed as biased. But here is another possibility: At this particular point in the race, a higher percentage of voters may be identifying themselves as Democrats. That doesn't mean they will still see themselves as Democrats on Election Day, but for whatever reason (such as excitement over the convention) they do now. Exit polls, after all, are taken only on Election Day, and they don't register the shifts in party ID that may have occurred in the weeks before (when some people are already sending in absentee ballots or...(Read Full Post)