Fear of the Five Percent

National Review's Jim Geraghty writes today at the journal's online edition about undecided voters in the presidential contest.  Geraghty's analysis should hearten Mitt Romney and GOP establishmentarians who've made a near fetish of the small universe of undecided voters.  Geraghty claims this group is in the 5% to 8% range of voters.  Yes, the presidential contest is tight, though misrepresented by public polls that are oversampling Democrats, minorities, and youth based on 2008 turnout.  And, really, no one should pay much heed to those polls that measure just adults or registered voters.  Half of all adults won't bother to vote.  And a healthy percentage of registered voters will not cast ballots, either.  So, accepting that the race is close, and the undecideds are a key to Romney's fortunes, here's the profile of undecideds that Geraghty relays: Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducted the NBC News/Wall...(Read Full Post)

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