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August 6, 2012
Syrian Prime Minister defects; reported to be in JordanRats are leaving the sinking ship that is the regime of Bashar Assad. Reuters is reporting that Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab has defected with his family and is in Jordan, ready to join the opposition. Syrian state media is reporting that he was fired. But a source in Jordan says he defected before he was let go by President Assad.
Hijab's defection does not materially affect the Assad regime. For months, the weak links in his regime have been sloughed off -- defections or deaths -- leaving only a hardcore of ministers, soldiers, Baath party members, and Alawites to carry on the battle. While weakened considerably, this hardcore will almost certainly stay with Assad through whatever trials there will be in the future. They don't have any choice. For many of the Alawites, they fear a Sunni takeover would result in their death. For the inner circle, there is the prospect of war crimes tribunals if they lose. For most of the soldiers, death at the hands of the Shabbiha militias awaits any attempt at defection. The civil war will not end until this hardcore is destroyed. And that could take years. |
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