Putrid Poll

Pew is out with a new poll showing Obama with a commanding ten point lead. Do not believe it.  Here are the cross tabs:  http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf  . A few takeaways: Of those interviewed: Democrats: 33% Republicans 22% Independents: 38% Rasmussen says the current party mix from its surveys of 15,000 interviews each month: is 35% GOP, 34% Democratic, 31% independent, or non-aligned.  Pew has the approval rating for Obama: 51% to 42%. Today in Gallup: 45-49, Rasmussen: 45-53.  Here is Pew's track record from prior races versus actual results using their final poll before the election: 2008: Obama by 11%, won by 7% 2004: Kerry by 1%, lost by 2.4% 2000: Gore by 4%, won by 0.5% 1996: Clinton by 19%, won by 8% 1992: Clinton by 10%, won by 5% They are always favorable to Democratic candidate, by an average of over 5% in their final poll. That is a huge error for a final poll.  We are seeing a systematic...(Read Full Post)

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