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August 8, 2012
Is it Romney's race to win?
Jay Cost, one of the best political analysts around, thinks so: Slowly but surely, the party rebuilt itself into the coalition we know today - dominated by racial and ethnic minorities, upscale white liberals (especially activist groups like the environmentalists and feminists), government workers, and young voters. It was in the 1988 election that we saw the party coming back from the brink, and every cycle since then the Democrats have enjoyed a floor of about 46 percent of the vote, built around roughly 90 percent of Democratic support, 40 percent of independent support, and 10 percent of Republican support. If you look carefully at the national horserace polls, you will notice that these are the only people supporting Obama over Romney, more or less. And if you look carefully at the presidential job approval polls, you will notice that these are also the only people approving of his job performance, more or less. In other words, Obama's polling right now suggests...(Read Full Post)