Dem poll pushes Todd Akin

Thomas Lifson
A Democrat polling operation, Public Policy Polling, is giving away the Democrats' desire to have Todd Akin stay in the Missouri Senate race. In so doing, it also reveals how polls are manipulated to produce the desired PsyOps effect. It is simply a matter of adjusting the sample, that is, poll more Democrats if you want one result, and poll more Republicans if you want another. In  this case, PPP has suddenly adjusted its sample to produce a poll indicating Akin has a chance to defeat Claire McCaskill.

Jim Geraghy of NRO's Campaign Spot spots the game being played in a blog titled, "PPP's Sample in Missouri Suddenly Becomes More Heavily GOP":

This morning, Public Policy Polling races to tell us that "Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread." [snip]

Let's take a look at that sample...

Democrat ........................................................ 30%

Republican...................................................... 39%

Independent/Other.......................................... 32%

Wow, R+9? Well, Missouri has been trending red lately, so maybe that's not that abnormal... Let's take a look at PPP's survey in this state in late May, when they found Obama leading Romney in Missouri by a point:

Democrat ........................................................ 35%

Republican...................................................... 33%

Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Wait, the sample went from D+2 to R+9? Gee, does anyone think that a heavily-Republican sample might be why Akin isn't trailing yet?

Rep. Akin should take note that Democrats consider him a goner, and their polling lackeys are willing to expose their sample game in order to con him into staying on the ballot.  If he stays in the race, he will hand a seat and possible Senate control to the Democrats. His name will be mud among conservatives for the rest of his life.  I urge him to consider very carefully whether the ego thrill is worth it.

Richard Baehr adds:

Now why would PPP be out with such a poll today? Could it be that Todd Akin needs to decide by 5 PM today whether he should stay in the race, and this may help him decide to do just that? Akin remaining in the race means that every GOP candidate across the county can expect to be reminded of his inane words, and be driven off message.

Of course, the PPP poll appears to be nonsense and nothing more than a politically manufactured result. The 1 point lead for Akin comes from a sample that is 39% Republican, and 30% Democratic. In PPP's last poll in Missouri, the sample favored Democrats by 2%.  In fact, PPP has oversampled Democrats consistently across the country this year. If PPP had a sample with the same GOP-Democratic split as its last poll, McCaskill might have had a 10 point lead.

Democrats wanted Akin as the GOP candidate during the GOP primary contest. They spent  millions in ad money to help achieve that result. Sadly, many Republicans fell for the message- Akin is the most conservative, so voted for him (similar to what happened in Delaware in 2010).

Even before the latest blunder, Akin had provided a wealth of ammunition to the McCaskill side.

First Read from NBC News today has it right, I think: "...but make no mistake: This race is NOT WINNABLE for Akin anymore, period. All Claire McCaskill has to do is run ads featuring every quote uttered yesterday by every prominent Republican in the country denouncing Akin as unfit to run."

The Republican Senate Campaign Committee will not back Akin at this point. He is too toxic for all the other candidates running. Neither will CrossRoads Super Pac. If Todd Akin cares about his party, his country, Senate control,and the ability of Romney and Ryan to talk about the issues they want to discuss, rather than Todd akin, he should withdraw . If he sticks in at this point, he may be delusional. Of course, that was the point of the PPP poll, to feed that delusion.

Akin claims to be a strong pro life candidate. If he stays in the race, it will do great damage to the cause.  Rather than circle the wagons and back Akin right through a defeat in November, the Susan B Anthony List, the Family Research Council, and Mike Huckabee should be advising Akin to pack it in, and allow a pro life candidate who can win to replace him.

A Democrat polling operation, Public Policy Polling, is giving away the Democrats' desire to have Todd Akin stay in the Missouri Senate race. In so doing, it also reveals how polls are manipulated to produce the desired PsyOps effect. It is simply a matter of adjusting the sample, that is, poll more Democrats if you want one result, and poll more Republicans if you want another. In  this case, PPP has suddenly adjusted its sample to produce a poll indicating Akin has a chance to defeat Claire McCaskill.

Jim Geraghy of NRO's Campaign Spot spots the game being played in a blog titled, "PPP's Sample in Missouri Suddenly Becomes More Heavily GOP":

This morning, Public Policy Polling races to tell us that "Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread." [snip]

Let's take a look at that sample...

Democrat ........................................................ 30%

Republican...................................................... 39%

Independent/Other.......................................... 32%

Wow, R+9? Well, Missouri has been trending red lately, so maybe that's not that abnormal... Let's take a look at PPP's survey in this state in late May, when they found Obama leading Romney in Missouri by a point:

Democrat ........................................................ 35%

Republican...................................................... 33%

Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Wait, the sample went from D+2 to R+9? Gee, does anyone think that a heavily-Republican sample might be why Akin isn't trailing yet?

Rep. Akin should take note that Democrats consider him a goner, and their polling lackeys are willing to expose their sample game in order to con him into staying on the ballot.  If he stays in the race, he will hand a seat and possible Senate control to the Democrats. His name will be mud among conservatives for the rest of his life.  I urge him to consider very carefully whether the ego thrill is worth it.

Richard Baehr adds:

Now why would PPP be out with such a poll today? Could it be that Todd Akin needs to decide by 5 PM today whether he should stay in the race, and this may help him decide to do just that? Akin remaining in the race means that every GOP candidate across the county can expect to be reminded of his inane words, and be driven off message.

Of course, the PPP poll appears to be nonsense and nothing more than a politically manufactured result. The 1 point lead for Akin comes from a sample that is 39% Republican, and 30% Democratic. In PPP's last poll in Missouri, the sample favored Democrats by 2%.  In fact, PPP has oversampled Democrats consistently across the country this year. If PPP had a sample with the same GOP-Democratic split as its last poll, McCaskill might have had a 10 point lead.

Democrats wanted Akin as the GOP candidate during the GOP primary contest. They spent  millions in ad money to help achieve that result. Sadly, many Republicans fell for the message- Akin is the most conservative, so voted for him (similar to what happened in Delaware in 2010).

Even before the latest blunder, Akin had provided a wealth of ammunition to the McCaskill side.

First Read from NBC News today has it right, I think: "...but make no mistake: This race is NOT WINNABLE for Akin anymore, period. All Claire McCaskill has to do is run ads featuring every quote uttered yesterday by every prominent Republican in the country denouncing Akin as unfit to run."

The Republican Senate Campaign Committee will not back Akin at this point. He is too toxic for all the other candidates running. Neither will CrossRoads Super Pac. If Todd Akin cares about his party, his country, Senate control,and the ability of Romney and Ryan to talk about the issues they want to discuss, rather than Todd akin, he should withdraw . If he sticks in at this point, he may be delusional. Of course, that was the point of the PPP poll, to feed that delusion.

Akin claims to be a strong pro life candidate. If he stays in the race, it will do great damage to the cause.  Rather than circle the wagons and back Akin right through a defeat in November, the Susan B Anthony List, the Family Research Council, and Mike Huckabee should be advising Akin to pack it in, and allow a pro life candidate who can win to replace him.