Academic model predicts big Romney win

Few pollsters are predicting an electoral landslide for Romney, but two academics from the University of Colorado have run the numbers through a statistical model they built and found Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November. LA Times: Campaign 2012 may have spent weeks stuck on discussions of Mitt Romney's taxes, Joe Biden's rant on putting "y'all in chains" and "legitimate rape" and abortion, but a pair of Colorado political scientists believe the struggling economy will still be the dominant issue and will pave the way for a Romney victory. Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here. Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado,...(Read Full Post)

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