It looks like 2012 turnout for voters 18-29 will mirror that of 2000 rather than 2004 or 2008. Gallup: Fifty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters aged 18 to 29 say they will "definitely vote" this fall, well below the current national average of 78% and far below 18- to 29-year-olds' voting intentions in the fall of 2004 and 2008. The 20-percentage-point deficit for young voters versus the national average compares unfavorably with six- and seven-point deficits in the later stages of the 2004 and 2008 elections, respectively. These results are based on an analysis of May 1-July 10 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with more than 30,000 registered voters, and more than 2,800 18- to 29-year-old registered voters. In addition to asking presidential vote preferences, Gallup asks registered voters to rate their chances of voting on a 10-point scale, with "10" indicating they will "definitely vote." This analysis reports the percentage of voters who say they will definitely vote. The question is asked as part of Gallup's larger likely voter scale....
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