The latest polls show that Senator Scott Brown is not winning any advantage over the revelations about Elizabeth Warren's claims to Cherokee ancestry.
Suffolk University had a poll last week showing Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren separated by only 1 point in the Massachusetts. Today, two more surveys have the race too close to call: the Boston Globe has Brown up 2 points, while the Western New England University Polling Institute has Warren ahead by the same margin.
Brown's approval rating is very healthy in both polls (60 percent in the Globe poll and 51 percent in Western New England University's poll), but the race is deadlocked as Democrats move toward Warren in the very liberal state. In the Globe survey, the whole issue of Warren's claimed Native American ancestry doesn't appear to have worked a dramatic change on the campaign:
Voters in the Globe poll seemed well aware of the issue, with 37 percent indicating they were very familiar and 33 percent saying they were somewhat familiar with it. But even among those who indicated they are paying at least some attention, 72 percent said it would not impact their vote in November.
There are five months left for this race to break one way or another, but at this moment in time, it looks like there's a decent chance we're headed for Tim Kaine-versus-George Allen territory: an evenly divided battle over inches of turf that may not give either candidate a strong edge until Election Day.
There aren't very many true "independents" in Massachusetts as well as the state having a large Democratic party registration advantage over Republicans. The Democrats in the Bay State feel no compunction about voting for a fraud - as long as she says all the right things on the issues.
That Scott Brown is this close to Warren in the polls speaks well for his political skills. He is going to need a bit of luck as well if he expects to come out on top in November.