Silver: GOP likely to retain House but majority will narrow

Rick Moran
Numbers wizard Nate Silver on the race for control of the US House: In the House, by contrast, Republicans are reasonably clear favorites to maintain their majority. Still, the House is probably more difficult to analyze than the battle for the Senate or the presidential race. Democrats, in my view, do retain something of an upside case that revolves around the possibility that anti-incumbent sentiment could manifest itself in a large amount of Congressional turnover. A macro-level view of the House of Representatives usually begins with the generic Congressional ballot. Right now, that shows Democrats and Republicans roughly tied; about as many people say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress as the Republican one. It might be thought that if the generic ballot is tied, the seats in the House would be split about evenly, therefore implying that Democrats had about even odds of retaking the chamber. But that probably is not the case. Generally, the...(Read Full Post)

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