Given the usual bias of the AP/GFK poll, these results suggest that Romney is probably ahead at this poiint:
Fighting a swell of economic anxiety, President Barack Obama has lost much of the narrow lead he held just a month ago over Mitt Romney and the two now are locked in a virtually even race for the White House, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey also found a majority of Americans disapproving of how the Democratic president is handling a national economy that fewer people think is improving.
Less than five months before the election, 47 percent say they will vote for the president and 44 percent for Romney, a difference that is not statistically significant. The poll also shows that Romney has recovered from a bruising Republican primary, with more of his supporters saying they are certain to vote for him now.
The economy remains Obama's top liability. Only 3 out of 10 adults say the country is headed in the right direction and 55 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, the highest level detected in AP-GfK polls this year.
"I'm not going to vote for Obama," said Raymond Back, a 60-year-old manufacturing plant manager from North Olmsted, Ohio, one of the most competitive states in this election. "It's just the wrong thing to do. I don't know what Romney is going to do, but this isn't the right way."
Yet, in a measure of Romney's own vulnerabilities, even some voters who say they support Romney believe the president will still be re-elected. Of all adults polled, 56 percent believe Obama will win a second term.
That's the advantage of incumbency; people's perception is that the guy in office can't be beat. There are a lot of voters out there who are "frontrunners" and the candidate in the lead benefits by that. What Romney has to do is alter the perception that Obama is inevitable. This is harder than it sounds. Reagan, the last candidate to beat an incumbent president, didn't break through with the voters until the last few days when the conversation turned back to the economy. Romney can do the same by staying on message and not getting caught up in the 24-7 news cycle.